Historically, natural gas futures are known for their indecisive moves. Sudden announcements of cold blasts, supply disruptions, and extreme weather often trigger sharp rallies. These are usually followed by steep slides.
On calculating a time span of the advent of a rally, peak testing, and follow-up slide continues to remain in the fray, approximately 100 days.
After conducting a study on the peak formations over the last 15 years, I find that the current rally in natural gas futures started on Jan.22, 2026, and seems to be a replica of a rally seen in 2014.
This looks quite similar to the rally seen in November. Then, natural gas futures started to move upward from October 30, 2018, from the lows at $3.221. They tested a peak at $4.968 on Nov. 14, 2018. Afterward, natural gas futures started to melt in a 55-degree fall that continued up to Feb. 7, 2019, finally testing $2.565—a fall of approximately -48.36% in 100 days.
Once again, natural gas futures experienced a rally, which started from the lows tested at $3.765 on Aug. 19, 2021, reached a peak on Oct.6, 2021, at $6.594, started to slide in a 58-degree fall, and this meltdown continued up to Dec. 6, 2021. This time, there was a fall of approximately 45%, and the time span was 106 days from the advent of a peak formation to test the lows at $3.621.
In 2022, natural gas futures tested two peaks – First started to from Mar. 22, 2022 from the tested lows at $4.968, tested a peak on June 8, 2022, and started to melt in a 75-degree fall that continued up to July 5, 2022, and the time span of this rally, advent to end, was 105 days and the fall was of approximately 49%.
The second rally started to form on July 6, 2022, after testing the lows at $5.352, testing a peak on Aug. 23 at $9.988, and started to meltdown in a 56-degree angle. This rally’s time span (from advent to end) was approximately of 108 days, and the fall was of approximately 46% from the tested peak, and this rally ended at the lows at $5.412.
Undoubtedly, natural gas futures started to slide after testing a small rally up to $8.719 on Nov. 23, 2022, and after a breakdown below the lows tested by the previous rally in August 2022, continued to remain in the $4.968 range and tested lows at $2.097 in March 2023.
Natural gas futures again started to move upward in August 2023 and tested a peak on Oct.31, 2023, at $3.865, followed by a long-term bearish trend and tested a low at $1.541 on Feb. 19, 2024, before resuming an uptrend from here, and tested a peak on June 12, 2024, at $3.189.
Natural gas futures continued to trade below $2 up to August 2024 while the next upward rally started with a breakout on Aug.28, 2024 when the natural gas futures after a gap up continued to trade above $2.979 till March 10, 2025 when the first peak of the last year was tested on March 10, 2025 at $4.902, followed by a steep fall of approximately 41% while the angle of this 64-degree fall, and the total time span (from advent of a rally to test the low after this rally) was of 83 days.
Then again natural gas futures continued to trade below $4, and tested a low at $2.899 on Oct.17, 2025 before rallying upward and tested at peak on Dec.5, 2025 at $5.492 before the advent of a steep slide when the natural gas futures a low at $2.992 on Jan.15, 2026 from where the next uptrend started from the very next day and hit a peak at $5.752 on Jan.22, 2026 after a cold blast in most of the parts of America.
Undoubtedly, this rally is a bumpy move of approximately 86.49% within six trading sessions. Now, a sharp slide can be seen on Jan. 23, 2026, as the natural gas futures have slid approximately 16.62% from the tested peak.
Now, it will be interesting to see when this rally tests the lows from where it started.
