Indices: U.S. Futures Steady After Record Dow Close
– U.S. equity index futures are in slight retreat following a second straight day of gains that saw tech lead and the notch fresh all-time highs; (+0.5% to 6,964) and (+0.8% to 25,268) fared better than the Dow 30 (+0.04% to 50,135) this time around, with decent gains for the small-cap (+0.7% to 2,689); Treasury yields edged lower as investors await a heavy slate of economic data this week, the results if veering far from expectations could tilt market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) from current (via majority) June and September 25bp expectations
– Japan’s (+2.4%) climbs this morning as “Takaichi trade” remains in focus following weekend LDP election victory in the Lower House
Stocks: Tech Rebound
– Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:) rose 2.5% as megacap AI names led the broader tech rebound, extending gains from the prior session with even larger percentage gains for (3.6%) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:) (+3.4%) recovering off the; Goldman Sachs analysts expect a ~$2bn revenue beat when Nvidia releases its quarterly figures in about two weeks
– Oracle (NYSE:) surged 9.6% after an upgrade to buy at DA Davidson tied to optimism around OpenAI and related beneficiaries; STMicroelectronics (+8.9%) climbed after announcing an expanded partnership with Amazon (NASDAQ:) (-0.8%) AWS
– Shares of Kroger (+3.9%) jump after WSJ report it has named former Walmart (NASDAQ:) (-1.7%) executive Greg Foran as its next CEO
– Tough day for Hims & Hers Health (-16%) plunging after pulling its copycat weight-loss pill following legal pressure from Novo Nordisk (+3.6%)
– Stellar session for both Nexstar Media Group (+8.5%) and Tegna (+8.8%) after President Trump voiced support for their merger
– Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (+5.6%), Kohl’s (-5.1%), GoPro (+2%), Krispy Kreme (-2.2%), Opendoor (+1.2%), AMC (-9.5%), Nokia (+1.6%), GameStop (-1.4%)
– Most crypto stocks track cryptocurrencies higher but the gains limited compared to Friday’s session save for Bullish: Coinbase (+1.3%), MicroStrategy (+2.6%), Mara Holdings (-2.2%), Gemini Space Station (+2.9%), Bullish (+16.8%) as Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest buys more of its stock
– Earnings:
o ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:): slight beat on earnings while matches on revenue; shares fall over 3% in extended trading
Commodities:
– falls back from a near-term resistance zone towards $5K as some profit-taking emerged after the recent run-up, while is back beneath $82 with the gold/silver ratio in the 61 handle
– Weekend gap gets filled for oil () hovering around $64 amid renewed U.S.–Iran tensions after Washington warned U.S.-flagged vessels to avoid Iranian waters and the Strait of Hormuz, reviving supply-disruption concerns despite ongoing talks; Reuters survey that OPEC oil output dropped in January on lower supply from both Nigeria and Libya, though Venezuelan production reported to have risen to 1m bpd
FX/Central Banks/Crypto:
– falls back beneath $70K remaining a tested environment on both fundamental and technical fronts, with a larger pullback in percentage terms for Ether beneath $2.1K; Strategy reveals they made more BTC purchases between the 2nd and 8th of February, buying 1,142 Bitcoin
– falls back into the 96 handle as markets unwind hawkish positioning tied to Fed leadership speculation; broad weakness is reinforced by yen strength and reports of diversification away from U.S. Treasuries; climbs to briefly reach 1.37 with the attention on UK politics as PM Starmer says he won’t resign and gets some support; not far off falling beneath 6.9 and at levels unseen since 2023, Bloomberg report that Chinese regulators urged banks to curb excessive exposure to U.S. Treasuries
– Federal Reserve’s Miran that tax law changes will benefit the economy and that rates ought to be much lower than current levels, and Bostic that choppy jobs data adds to case for Fed caution
– European Central Bank’s President Lagarde expects inflation to stabilize sustainably at the 2% target, Nagel that they’ll take action when medium-term inflation projection deviates sustainably and noticeably from 2%, Simkus that rates are at neutral level with growth near potential with the next move 50/50 chance on hike/cut, Kazimir that it would take a major departure from the baseline scenario for him to consider changing policy, and Kocher that inflation expectations are fully anchored and FX movements are factored in; Villeroy to step down in June with Moulin a potential successor
– Bank of England’s Mann that China is raising export prices due to U.S. tariffs
– Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama that surplus from FX reserves may be discussed as a funding option
Capital.com Client Sentiment: Unwinding in Indices While Edging Higher in Precious Metals
– Indices: Price gains sees long bias drop across the board when it comes to U.S. equity indices, with the S&P (72% from 75% yesterday) and Russell (66% from 71%) still in heavy buy territory, the Nasdaq falling out of it (63% from 68%) and the Dow shifting (from the middle to a slight sell 51%); elsewhere sentiment shifts back to majority buy in the Nikkei (61%) after a brief venture into slight sell territory
– Commodities: On the verge of moving back into extreme buy territory in gold (77% from 76% yesterday) and edges higher in silver as well (to an extreme buy 82%), while gains in WTI sees long sentiment drop (to 70% from 74%) and a gap lower in that stuck raising buy bias further into extreme long territory (85% from 79%)
– FX: Shifts to the middle in (from a slight buy 52%) and from the middle in (to a slight buy 52%), while on the verge of shifting in and
Data:
– U.S. NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations sees drop to 3.1% from 3.4%, while both 3- and 5-year hold at 3%
– EZ Sentix investor confidence for February rebounds to 4.2 from -1.8
– Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence suffers its third consecutive decline; NAB’s business confidence improves by one to three but worsens to seven for business conditions
Today:
– U.S. (5:30 pm Dubai time) and trade pricing data, employment change (5:15 pm), API’s weekly energy inventory readings (1:30 am), FOMC members speak, 3-year auction
o Earnings from Coca-Cola (NYSE:), Ford Motor (NYSE:) and more
– EIA’s monthly STEO report
