Supertanker rates to ship crude on the key Middle East-to-China route have surged to a six-year high as Persian Gulf supply to India soars and traders rush shipments to precede a potential U.S. military campaign in Iran, industry data and sources tell Reuters.
The daily rate for hiring a very large crude carrier (VLCC) capable of shipping 2 million barrels of jumped to as much as $170,000 on Tuesday, tripling since the beginning of 2026.
A number of factors have contributed to the surge, most notably the increased demand from India for Middle Eastern crude as New Delhi seeks to replace a large part of the Russian barrels it had bought over the past three years.
Moreover, tanker owners and charterers have hastened in recent days to ship crude out of the Middle Eastern region amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
The U.S. and Iran are preparing for last-ditch indirect talks on Thursday in Geneva, according to the Omani mediators.
Analysts aren’t ruling out a failure in the talks and some kind of a U.S. military campaign as early as this weekend.
The heightened geopolitical tensions could also boost the war premiums that shippers and insurers will ask, according to analysts.
The rally in the VLCC freight rates began at the end of 2025 on the back of growing oil supply, longer voyages, and disruptions due to sanctions and altered shipping lanes.
Following a brief respite in January, the tanker rates have rebounded this month to the highest since 2020 as the market became aware of a major vessel buying spree from South Korea’s Sinokor shipping group, which is now estimated to control about a fourth of all available non-sanctioned tankers.
“Military action in the Middle East will likely take VLCC rates to levels not seen since 2019,” Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told Bloomberg at the end of last week.
