Oracle Earnings: Revenue Seen Rising as Shares Trade 53% Below Record High | Investing.com

• Oracle’s earnings come at a critical point, with strong cloud and AI infrastructure demand offset by concerns over rising capital spending and financing needs.
• Investors will focus on cloud growth, remaining performance obligations and full-year guidance to assess whether the company can sustain its AI-driven expansion.
• The options market implies a move of up to 11%, while the stock’s technical setup hinges on the $159.50–$161 support zone, with $170–$180 as the upside range if it holds.

Oracle (NYSE:) is set to release its quarterly earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, with traders expecting significant movement in the database and cloud infrastructure company’s stock.

The company’s shares have declined nearly 20% so far in 2026 and have fallen more than 50% from their record high reached last September.

Investor concerns have centered on Oracle’s fundraising and spending plans, as well as the heavy concentration of its backlog among a small number of major artificial intelligence companies.

Key Highlights:

• ORCL is expected to report quarterly revenue of approximately $19.13 billion to $19.14 billion, reflecting around 28% year-over-year growth, while adjusted earnings are projected to increase to $1.74 per share from $1.47 a year earlier and net profit is forecast to rise to $4.06 billion from $2.93 billion.
• Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh considers Oracle’s upcoming earnings an “attractive tactical opportunity.”
• The company’s cloud revenue is projected to grow 63% year over year, reaching the upper end of its 58%–65% guidance range, while its GPU-as-a-service offering is expected to serve as a key growth driver by providing customers with on-demand AI computing power.
• Favorable pricing trends reported by CoreWeave and Nebius Group further point to strong demand for AI infrastructure and potential pricing power for Oracle.
• Growth in Oracle’s deferred revenue has exceeded recognized cloud-applications revenue for two consecutive quarters, indicating a strong pipeline of future sales.

What to Watch in Oracle’s Upcoming Results

Investors will closely scrutinize Oracle’s capital spending amid growing concerns about the sustainability of Big Tech’s artificial-intelligence investments. The company reported $55.66 billion in capital expenditure for fiscal 2026 and expects spending to approach $70 billion in the coming year. Any further increase in its spending outlook could weigh on investor sentiment and pressure the stock’s valuation.

Analysts at Oppenheimer anticipate a positive fiscal first quarter, citing strong demand across the broader enterprise-software sector as a favorable indicator for Oracle’s cloud business. Continued momentum could support an increase to the company’s full-year outlook. However, financing requirements remain a significant concern, particularly if Oracle raises its capital-expenditure guidance or delays capacity expansion.

Investors will also seek updates on Oracle’s recent partnership with quantum-computing company Quantinuum (NASDAQ:). Under the multiyear agreement, Quantinuum plans to deploy its Helios quantum computer at an Oracle AI data center. The companies will also explore hybrid quantum-AI infrastructure aimed at addressing enterprise challenges, offering a glimpse into Oracle’s long-term technology strategy.

Oracle has recently beaten analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share but concerns over financing needs and major partnerships have weighed on the stock. Shares are down 17.6% year to date in 2026 and 53.4% from their all-time high reached mid-September 2025.

Cloud revenue, which rose 47% year over year in the fourth quarter and helped drive the company’s double beat and record results, will remain a key focus in the upcoming report.

Investors will also closely monitor remaining performance obligations, which totaled $638 billion at the end of the fourth quarter—an increase of 363% from the prior year. A further rise would provide insight into Oracle’s future revenue pipeline.

Following the release of its fiscal 2027 guidance, analysts and investors will also be watching to see whether the company raises its outlook after reporting first-quarter results.

Analysts Expectation

• TD Cowen analysts reaffirmed their Buy rating on Oracle (ORCL) and maintained a $240 price target for the stock.
• Scotiabank lowered its price target for Oracle to $215 per share from $241 while maintaining its Sector Outperform rating.
• Citizens analysts reiterated their Market Outperform rating and $285 price target on Oracle (ORCL).

ORCL Q1 2027 earnings after market (4:05 pm ET) Thursday, September 10, 2026

Expected Move by Option Expiration:

Options Market:

Based on recent options pricing, Oracle (ORCL) shares could move as much as 11% in either direction by the end of the week. From Wednesday’s close, or below $145 if it declines.

Technical Analysis Perspective:

• ORCL broke above a significant descending trendline from its June 2026 high after rejecting the large downside gap created following the September 2025 earnings report.
• The stock rebounded sharply from the 114 area to 159 before pulling back toward 140 in early September, forming a rising channel-like pattern.
• As of Wednesday’s close, ORCL is trading near the channel midpoint at 161.
• Base case: If the stock holds the 159.50–161 support zone, it could advance toward the 170–180 range.
• Alternative scenario: A break below 159.50 could open the way for a decline toward 153–145.

Daily Candlestick Chart

ORCL Seasonality Chart:

Since 2002, Oracle (ORCL) has finished September higher in 48% of years, with an average gain of 1.34%. October has been stronger historically, with the stock closing higher 63% of the time and averaging a 4.38% return.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.

He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.