A huge jump in gasoline prices led to increased spending in March.
Retail sales were wild in March led by a huge hump in sales at gas stations.Please consider the Census Department report on Advance for March of 2026.
Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $752.1 billion, up 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2025.
Total sales for the January 2026 through March 2026 period were up 3.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2026 to February 2026 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent).
Nonstore retailers were up 10.1 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 2.4 percent (±1.9 percent) from March 2025.
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
The report only lists nominal sales, not real (inflation-adjusted sales). It’s real sales that feed .
Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over Month Change
- Total: 1.66 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles: 1.94 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.65 percent
- Motor Vehicles: 0.5 percent
- Food Stores: 0.7 percent
- Nonstore Sales: 1.0 percent
- Gas Stations: 15.45 percent
Those are hot numbers but it’s entirely inflation and gasoline as shown by real spending.
Real Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Month-Over-Month
- Total: 0.8 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles: 1.1 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: -0.2 percent
- Motor Vehicles: -0.4 percent
- Food Stores: -0.2 percent
- Nonstore Sales: 0.2 percent
- Gas Stations: 14.6 percent
Real vs Nominal Sales Notes
- Real retail sales peaked in April of 2022 at 228,788. They are now 227,696. That’s a decline of 1,092 or 0.48 percent.
- In April of 2022, nominal sales were 660,194. They are now 752,063. That’s an increase of 91,869 or 13.92 percent.
Over 100 percent of the increase in retail sales since April of 2022 is due to inflation.
Correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t someone campaign on fixing this?
Percent Change from Year Ago
- Nominal retail sales year-over year peaked in March of 2025 at 5.2 percent, now 4.0 percent. That’s the number the Commerce Department reports.
- Real retail sales year-over year peaked in March of 2025 at 2.7 percent, now 0.7percent. That’s the number that matters.
Year-over-year retail sales up 0.7 percent from a year ago is an anemic number.
But hey, “Look at . That’s what everyone should be talking about,” said Attorney General Pam Bondi right before she was fired.
Under questioning from Rep. Jamie Raskin about the DOJ’s handling of Epstein files, a visibly agitated Bondi interrupted to highlight record-breaking stock market highs.
