After reviewing the movements of the on different time chart patterns since the beginning of 2025, I find that the futures look ready to shed half of the gains this year, despite surging industrial demand, as the advent of a selling spree from the tested peak at $82.615 pushed the futures back up to $70.980 to close the year 2025.
Undoubtedly, major pull back was seen in December 2025 since the advent of a rally after testing a low at $28.179 in August 2025, finally tested a peak at $82.615, closed the year at $70.896 amid declining expectation of more easing on interest rate cut expectations which got confirmation after release of the FOMC minutes of the Fed’s Dec. 9-10 meeting on Tuesday this week.
However, rate projections for 2025 pointed to an even deeper split among the larger group of 19 policymakers. Six officials signalled their opposition to the rate reduction by recommending that the benchmark rate should stand at 3.75% to 4% at the end of this year, where it stood before the December meeting.
In line with those projections, the minutes showed that some officials believed “it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for some time after a lowering of the range at this meeting.”
While the median rate projection from officials released after the meeting indicated a one-quarter-point cut in 2026, individual projections varied widely. Investors expect at least two reductions in the coming year.
I find that the technical formations define a scary picture for the silver bulls in 2026 as the rally seen in had pushed the futures to test much above the overbought territory amid surging concerns on geopolitical tensions and interest rate cuts expectations from the Federal Reserve in 2025 while the futures continued to surge upward amid surging bullish momentum despite delayed relevant data in October 2025 due to 43-day-long shutdown.
I find that despite surging geopolitical concerns with the tussle between the U.S. and Iran, easing expectation on interest rate cuts looms large as the accelerating slide in silver futures looks evident enough to break down the significant support at $67.921in January 2026, despite its industrial demand, as all the precious metals will be pushed back due to declining rate cut expectations.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a monthly chart, silver futures could struggle to defend the immediate support at $70.896 in January 2026 as the silver futures are still trading much above the ‘Handle’ of the “Cup & Handle” formations, could move back to relevant levels at $55.677 where a breakdown below this level could push the futures to test the significant support at $53.343.
Inversely, any sustainable move above the immediate resistance at $73.461 could keep the upside to test the next resistance at $79.698.
In a weekly chart, the formation of a dark cloud looks evident enough to continue the selling spree despite some bounce-backs from this week’s low, but the selling spree will likely continue.
In a daily chart, silver futures are trading below the immediate resistance at the 9 EMA ($72.178), and the formation of an exhaustive candle on Dec. 31, 2025 look evident enough to push the futures below the immediate support at the 20 EMA ($66.575) where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the 50 EMA ($57.186).
Inversely, any sustainable move above the immediate resistance at the 9 EMA ($72.18) will push the futures to test the next resistance at $75.725.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in silver futures at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
