Tesla Earnings: Another Year Down—EV Maker Faces a High-Stakes Test of Patience | Investing.com

Tesla (NASDAQ:) has had a volatile year, plunging to $214 in April 2025 during the tariff selloff, rallying to $498 in December 2025, and now trading at $430. Analysts expect EPS of $0.45 on $24.78 billion in revenue. Despite sliding EV deliveries, the stock remains near highs, suggesting Tesla’s story extends beyond just electric vehicles.

The company will report quarterly earnings on January 28th after the market close. While vehicle sales are falling, its energy division has seen robust growth and demand. Option-implied volatility points to a roughly 5% move in the stock either way.

Key Highlights

• Investors are searching for signs that Elon Musk’s long-promised self-driving vision is gaining traction even as Tesla’s core EV business shows strain. Competition and brand controversies have weighed on the segment that generates most of Tesla’s revenue: deliveries fell in 2025, and LSEG data suggest fourth-quarter sales and adjusted profit declined about 3.6% and 40%, respectively. Still, much of Tesla’s $1.49 trillion market value rests on Musk’s bets on autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots.
• Tesla’s Q4 call is likely to mirror prior quarters, with Elon Musk framing the company as an AI play rather than just an automaker. Still, the auto business remains crucial, generating cash to fund ventures like the Optimus humanoid robot, which is still in early investment stages and years from commercial scale.
• Brand Finance says Tesla’s brand value fell $15.4 billion (36%) in 2025 to $27.61 billion, down from $43 billion at the start of the year and far below its $66.2 billion peak in January 2023. CEO David Haigh blamed the decline on a lack of new innovative models, relatively high vehicle prices, Elon Musk’s geopolitical entanglements, and his reduced focus on the automotive business.
• Musk said recently that he expects FSD approval in Europe next month (and possibly China soon), called self-driving a solved problem, predicted widespread robotaxi service next year, and noted some insurers offer lower rates for FSD users.
• At the WEF, Musk said robotaxis will be widespread in the U.S. by year-end and predicted FSD approval in Europe next month, with China on a similar timeline.

Investors’ focus in earnigns call:

• Delivery outlook weak: deliveries down two years; U.S. tax-credit expirations, rising Chinese competition, and policy shifts (Canada/EU) pressure sales. Reports of incentives in India.
• Cybercab timeline: production slated for April; expect “extremely slow” early rates with an eventual fast ramp, seek 2026 production details.
• Robotaxi/full autonomy: watch for updates on expansion, monetization plans, and progress toward full self-driving, which underpins valuation.
• FSD subscription & regulation: moved to $99/month—monitor early adoption trends and any regulatory progress in China/EU that would be materially positive.

Analysts Expectation

• Barclays raised its Tesla (TSLA) price target to $360 from $350, keeping an Equal-weight rating.
• Morgan Stanley reiterated an Equal-weight rating and a $425 price target on Tesla (TSLA).
• A UBS analyst kept a “Sell” rating on Tesla (TSLA) and raised the price target to $307 from $247.

TSLA Q4 2025 earnings after-market (4:07 pm ET) Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Expected Move by Option Expiration:

Options flow shows large net positive gamma at the 500 strike and notable net negative gamma at 420 for Jan 2026–Dec 2028 expiries. Option positions are balanced through 2026 except for a mid‑February spike in the put/call ratio to 2.49%.

Technical Analysis Perspective

• TSLA failed at the ~490 area twice: 12/18/2024 (high 488) and 12/22/2025 (high 498.83).
• The stock sits above key supports in the 425–411 range.
• If 425–411 holds after earnings, upside targets are ~452 then ~470.
• A decisive break below 425–411 would target 403–383.
• Overall, TSLA may trade between 470 and 383 after earnings.
• A breakout in either direction would trigger a larger, sustained directional move.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

TSLA Seasonality Chart

Since 2010, TSLA has seen January close with a 5.5% gain in 56% of years and February with a 1.5% gain in 47% of years.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

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