The world’s oil and gas markets are on a knife’s edge, waiting on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz—once again a centerpiece in Iran’s high-stakes game of energy brinksmanship. It’s a playbook straight out of the 1980s, with Tehran trying to rattle the globe and squeeze supply, but history suggests these tactics rarely end well for the regime.
After yesterday’s wild ride, oil prices are taking a breath, finding a bit of balance as the Trump administration rolls out moves to calm nerves and bring some sanity back to the markets. The administration is even floating the idea of suspending the Jones Act—the century-old law that says only American ships and crews can move oil between U.S. ports. That’s a page out of the “break glass in case of emergency” playbook.
And in another move that is lowering prices in Asia Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tossed a lifeline to the world’s oil supply, granting a 30-day waiver so countries can snap up sanctioned Russian barrels that have been stuck floating at sea for over a month. Bessent said it’s all about easing the chaos unleashed by the war in Iran and keeping crude moving into the tanks and onto the highways. The message: stability comes first, even if it means rewriting the rules—at least for now.
In a move that’s making waves in the energy world, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threw a lifeline to global oil markets by announcing a 30-day waiver for countries to pick up those sanctioned Russian barrels that have been bobbing around at sea for over a month. The hope? That this bold step will cool off some of the panic ignited by Iran’s saber-rattling and help get crude flowing where it’s needed most. And markets took notice—oil prices pulled back in Asian trading after the news broke. Russia’s own Kirill Dmitriev pointed out to Reuters that this decision could unclog as much as 100 million barrels of crude—just about a whole day’s global supply—providing a much-needed pressure valve as energy traders around the world keep one eye on the Strait of Hormuz and the other on their price screens.
Mr. Bessent expressed confidence in ensuring stability in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the potential for an international coalition to actively escort tankers and keep operations safe. In his Sky News interview, he emphasized that plans are in place for the U.S. Navy or allied forces to help guide oil tankers if necessary and pointed out that Iranian and Chinese-flagged vessels are currently moving smoothly through the region.
As we approach the weekend, oil traders are bracing for what could be a dramatic turn in the markets— The problem is they do not know which way, Events could cause another massive price spike similar to what we saw last Sunday night or the exact opposite of what we saw last Sunday instead of an epic price spike a reversal we could see a price crash and rebound. The odds are high for at another big move and potential gap. Just pick on or both with options.
I’m hopeful that the market move will be downward, as President Trump, in a virtual meeting with G7 leaders on Wednesday, reportedly stated that Iran is “about to surrender,” according to an Axios report published Friday that cited three officials from G7 countries who were briefed on the call. The report says Trump told his allies, “I got rid of a cancer that was threatening us all,” and took credit for the outcome of Operation “Epic Fury” during the G7 call Wednesday morning.
Yet, on the flipside, if reports that the Iranians have started to mine the Strait of Hormuz are true and if we see more attacks on ships over the weekend, or more indiscriminate attacks on oil facilities, U.S. oil infrastructure, civilians, animals, or whatever this terror regime decides to attack, we could see another price spike.
California, as usual, doesn’t need international chaos to spark its own energy crisis—state policies are doing a fine job all by themselves. According to Bloomberg, oil drillers in central California are now forced into the absurdly inefficient practice of trucking barrels of crude 50 miles after a refinery shutdown and the closure of a key pipeline left them with nowhere else to send their oil.
Previously, up to 35,000 barrels a day flowed north from Kern County to Bay Area refineries via the San Pablo Bay Pipeline. But thanks to the shutdown of , that pipeline has been empty since December. The final nail in the coffin came in February when Valero began winding down operations—one more self-inflicted wound for California’s energy future.
This disaster created a local oversupply, further crushing margins for California oil producers. All of this is unfolding just as Governor Newsom eyes a White House run and Californians face the highest gas prices in the country—driven higher by war abroad, but made worse by years of hostile state regulation and refinery shutdowns. Bloomberg reports that about half the stranded oil makes it out on another pipeline, but most ends up loaded on trucks in eastern Kern County and hauled 50 miles just to reach a pipeline headed toward Los Angeles. If you’re filling up your tank, you’re paying for this mess.
prices are going absolutely wild, whipped around by such extreme weather that it’s making March Madness seem downright calm by comparison.
According to Fox Weather, a major storm is expected to impact millions of Americans, stretching more than 2,000 miles and bringing wind gusts in the triple digits. The network notes these powerful winds could lead to widespread power outages, toppled trees, and dangerous crosswinds on roads running north to south. Also, according to the Fox Weather app, after experiencing several days of record-breaking warmth, millions of people along the I-95 corridor are now dealing with snow and frigid temperatures. In some locations, temperatures dropped by more than 50 degrees as a cold front moved through.
Yesterday the said that total working gas in underground storage across the Lower 48 states clocked in at 1,848 billion cubic feet (Bcf) – that’s a whopping +141 Bcf (+8.3%) higher than this time last year! Sure, we saw a net withdrawal of -38 Bcf from the previous week, but that’s typical for this time of year as heating demands wrap up. Even better, we’re just a hair below the five-year average (-17 Bcf or -0.9%), staying comfortably within the historical range. This kind of stability screams reliability for consumers and producers alike – no major shortages in sight! Now is there any sign of spring in sight?
