Oil prices, as well as diesel and gasoline crack spreads, are surging after Iran attacked energy infrastructure following the issuance of warnings. Are the warnings pre attack a sign that this war is just beginning or getting closer to the end. Iran signaled the attacks ahead of time to all of its enemies, old and new. This situation prompts the question of why an adversary would be warned, as such notification could often enable them to respond effectively or mitigate the consequences of the attack. Was this just a response to save face after attacks on their own South Pars energy infrastructure, or is it blackmailing the world. Was Iran’s warning of the attacks like last April when Iran had to respond to an attack on its consulate in Syria? Then framed its response as necessary retaliation and signaled in advance through diplomatic channels to regional countries and indirectly to the US, giving time for defenses to prepare.
Yesterday Iran did the same thing as they issued of evacuation warnings for specific Gulf energy sites like the SAMREF refinery and Jubail Petrochemical Complex in Saudi Arabia, Al Hosn gas field in UAE, and Ras Laffan/Mesaieed in Qatar before they attacked, which they did. During the night, Iran launched attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, which is recognized as the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export hub. Reports confirm that several Iranian missile strikes resulted in substantial damage, fires, and considerable operational disruptions.
QatarEnergy acknowledged “extensive additional damage” and fires affecting LNG facilities. Iranian missiles also targeted the Habshan gas facility and Bab oil field in Abu Dhabi, UAE; although missiles were intercepted overhead, authorities halted operations at both sites, calling the attacks a serious escalation.
In Saudi Arabia, strikes were reported at a Red Sea refinery—possibly Yanbu, including the SAMREF facility—and attacks occurred at refineries in the Eastern Province, such as Ras Tanura. Saudi officials stated they downed drones aimed at natural gas sites, and despite shutting down operations, oil loadings at the port of Yanbu have resumed according to two sources.
Additionally, reports indicated two Kuwaiti oil refineries, including Mina Abdullah, were set on fire by drone strikes, with further threats and attacks extending to facilities in Bahrain and Oman.
Reports say that UAE says 7 missiles and 15 drones targeted the country on Thursday. Libya’s NOC says fire at Sharara pipeline is extinguished in a statement .
The UAE calls for a halt to attacks on civil and energy infrastructure. Yet Iran says that the response to South Pars attack isn’t complete and that Iran’s Foreign Minister says that regional countries need ‘coordination and vigilance’ against the US and Israel aim to ‘escalate tensions’ via strikes on Iranian infrastructure. Sounds like blackmail to me.
Either stand up against the US and Israel and join them or have your oil infrastructures go up in flames like the Kuwaiti oil fields after a defeated Saddam Hussein introducing a new element to the scorched earth policy.
These attacks have caused global oil prices to surge sharply. nearing or exceeding $119 per barrel and April briefly above $100. The diesel crack spread hit 84.75 that would exceed that 2022 peak of $83, making it the highest ever recorded. Brent crude is feeling the heat far more than WTI because it’s the global benchmark, tightly linked to seaborne Middle East oil. The Strait of Hormuz is ground zero for any disruptions: attacks, blockades, halted tanker traffic.
That directly threatens exports and loads Brent with a hefty geopolitical risk premium. WTI is sheltered due to Drill Baby Drill policies, record US production as well as the fact it’s land it’s land-based, U.S.-centric, and far less exposed to Gulf shipping chaos.
Diesel, meanwhile, gets punished worse than gasoline for three key reasons: Heavy reliance on global shipping and freight — trucks, marine bunkers, and logistics guzzle diesel.
Middle East flare-ups jack up freight rates, insurance costs, and disrupt refined product flows worldwide. Diesel markets overreact to supply crunches and sudden spikes in military/logistics demand during conflicts. Brent captures the international supply scare; diesel amplifies it through transport and refining exposure. In this environment, watch those cracks — they’re screaming tightness louder than crude itself. Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665 if you want to learn more.
In the meantime, gas pump prices are rising, but the Trump administration is doing everything it can to minimize the impact. Yesterday the Trump administration delivered some timely supply-side relief with a 60-day waiver of the century-old Jones Act, foreign-flagged vessels can now legally haul oil, refined products, natural gas, fertilizer and coal between U.S. ports. For those keeping score, the Jones Act normally forces everything to move on pricier U.S.-built, U.S.-crewed ships — great for protecting American maritime jobs but a real drag on domestic energy logistics.
This temporary suspension should cut shipping costs, speed up product flows from the Gulf to the East Coast and Northeast, and ease some of the bottlenecks that have been pushing prices higher. This will help the East Coast especially as we can move more gasoline from the Gulf Coast to New York Harbor.
The Jones Act is a reminder that the Trump administration has it right by “ Make Shipbuilding Great Again.”
The lack of efficacy and lack of US ships and crews cause higher prices. The Trump administration’s ‘Make Shipbuilding Great Again’ initiative is a bold, long-overdue push to revive America’s once-dominant maritime industrial base.
Through the Maritime Action Plan and Executive Order 14269, the White House is targeting massive investments in domestic shipyards, workforce training, subsidies, tax incentives, and regulatory reforms to boost commercial and defense vessel construction—while reducing reliance on foreign-built ships that now dominate global markets. This three-pronged strategy—bolstering shipbuilding capacity, expanding the mariner workforce, and encouraging U.S.-flagged vessels—aims to restore national security resilience, secure supply chains, and create thousands of high-paying American jobs
Even amid short-term Jones Act flexibility to ease energy prices, the core commitment remains clear: we can’t outsource our maritime strength. It’s time to build ships here, employ Americans here, and make our shipyards roar again.
Paired with that move, the White House is also waiving the federal smog-cutting restrictions on summer-blend gasoline (those tough RVP volatility rules). Refiners won’t have to rush into the more expensive low-volatility summer formulations right now — they can keep producing and selling cheaper, higher-supply blends through the transition. That should blunt the usual seasonal price spike as we head into driving season and give consumers a little breathing room at the pump.
prices are creeping up overnight even as it’s shielded from much of the chaos from the Iran war. April NG futures are up 3.5-5% this morning, trading near $3.18, and only getting a hydrocarbon stepsister boost from surging oil and diesel prices amid the Middle East mayhem.
While Iran attacks have hammered Gulf energy facilities (including major LNG sites in Qatar), disrupting global supplies and pushing Brent crude over $100+, U.S. natural gas markets are more insulated thanks to our domestic production boom and export dynamics. The spillover is still providing some lift to the hydrocarbon complex.
Traders are also eyeing today’s EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. Consensus expectations call for a +39 to +42 Bcf injection for the week ended March 13 — potentially the first build of the season, which would widen the year-over-year storage surplus and flip us to a surplus versus the five-year average and be sign that spring is trying to get here!
Meanwhile, Fox Weather’s outlook shows a milder pattern with above-normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48. We’re firmly in shoulder season now, with reduced heating demand capping any big rally for now.
