The leadership in Iran, what is left of them anyway declared that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding in ‘crisis phase’. Maybe it’s in a crisis phase because Iran does not understand that a ceasefire means not to fire at ships in international waters and not to attack other countries unprovoked. Iran launched missile and drone attacks against Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, and the UAE — that’s six countries now, not five, and every one of them either hosts U.S. troops or sits next door to the oil and gas infrastructure that keeps the world running.
And Iran’s Foreign Ministry delusional says that the US has consistently violated agreement. This came just hours after the U.S. hit a reported 140 military targets inside Iran in response to Iran striking a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz.
The damage was mostly contained according to reports and most attacks were intercepted or caused limited physical damage — but Kuwait’s offshore drilling platform was struck by an Iranian drone, and Kuwait’s Defense Ministry reported material damage at four locations, including one worker injured on that offshore installation — the first confirmed hit on an operating Gulf oil installation during Sunday’s barrage. Bahrain, home to the headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, said its air defenses knocked down the incoming fire clean
Regardless of the flare up caused oil to spike and drop and the Stair of Hormuz traffic dopped according to Reuters to a five-week low on Sunday as six ships transited, per Kpler ship-tracking data on ramped up safety fears.
A VLCC carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian crude and another tanker with 500,000 barrels of Kuwaiti products both exited the strait, while three empty tankers entered the load, though most vessels switched off their transponders while crossing — so real traffic could be higher than the data shows. No LNG tankers were spotted entering over the weekend.
So is the strait opened or closed! It depends on who you ask and who has the better military to back up their position,
President Trump said Sunday the strait remains open to commercial traffic, even as Iran had earlier declared it closed after striking a vessel that used an unapproved route. Today he says that “We will probably run the Strait, if we run Hormuz, US will be reimbursed, we will become the guardian of the Strait.”
On Monday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said their navy had stopped two ships in the strait overnight by disabling their systems, though they did not identify the vessels. Meanwhile, U.S. forces struck dozens of additional targets inside Iran with precision munitions on Sunday, according to CENTCOM.
Iranian state television said Hormuz would remain closed until the U.S. ends its interference. Separately, Shana reported that Iran and Russia are close to finalizing a gas trade agreement. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to a five-week low Sunday, with only limited vessel movement reported. Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported explosions near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. The renewed U.S.-Iran escalation over the Strait of Hormuz has raised warnings that further oil and gas disruptions could follow.
Iran’s crazy actions is drawing out more international outrage, as the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas declared from Brussels, “There can be no tolls, no fees in the Strait of Hormuz.” Freedom of navigation through this critical chokepoint must remain unimpeded under international law — any pay-for-passage scheme sets a dangerous precedent for global maritime routes.
Even the UK has finally moved to ban Iran’s IRGC — a better-late-than-never step its allies have urged for years. The UK’s National Security Act received royal assent this week, clearing the way to formally designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. The U.S. banned these guys back in Trump’s first term. Sweden did it. Canada did it. Saudi Arabia did it. I guess the UK had to see firsthand how these guys operate or maybe when they relax that now this is not just the other guy’s problem, this is a threat to the UK. After A attack on Jewish community ambulances in north London — that’s what finally got Parliament off the fence. Starmer came out and said Britain must “deal with malign state actors.” Ban the IRGC and you choke off its greatest hits — Hezbollah, Hamas, and yes, the Houthis, the same guys who’ve been taking potshots at your ships
And despite the price spiking it’s clear that the US should be able to gain the upper hand shortly in that is why the market is relatively calm based on the increase in tensions still it’s interesting we’re getting a report from Goldman Sachs that it’s raising its oil price forecast. Investing.com reported that Goldman Sachs revealed in a note Monday morning that it has raised its long-dated oil price assumption by $9 per barrel to $76 at the peak of the U.S.-Iran war, citing a higher structural security premium, but said the eventual expansion of pipeline capacity bypassing the Strait of Hormuz poses a downside risk to that assumption over time.
This comes as ’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report shows a dramatic unwind in June as geopolitical risk premiums evaporate.
The OPEC Reference Basket plunged $24.80 to $89.75/b. front-month fell $19.28 to $84.43/b, dropped $16.72 to $81.79/b. narrowed to +$2.64/b. Markets moved into shallower backwardation as prompt supply fears eased.
Hedge funds and money managers aggressively sold — dumping the equivalent of 245 million barrels across Brent and WTI futures/options in late May through late June. Speculators bet heavily on de-escalation in the Middle East and improved flows, pushing net longs to their lowest levels since early 2026.
OPEC points to strong physical fundamentals and geopolitical tensions drove Brent and WTI up over 33% from 2H25 levels. Product markets (especially jet/kerosene and gasoil) spiked harder in Q1/Q2 on refinery disruptions and East-West flow constraints before easing in May/June.
OPEC Says that Global oil demand growth forecast at +0.8 mb/d for 2026 (slight downward revision) and a healthy +1.9 mb/d for 2027. Non-OECD leads; OECD remains modest.
They say that OECD commercial inventories drew another 21.8 mb in May, now well below five-year averages. Days of forward cover tightened. DoC crude demand seen at 42.3 mb/d in 2026 (same as 2025) and 43.6 mb/d in 2027: June’s selloff was classic profit-taking and risk-premium evaporation after earlier gains. Physical markets remain supported by low stocks, summer driving/refinery demand, and lingering uncertainties. The big picture hasn’t changed — structural tightness into 2027 with healthy demand growth outpacing non-OPEC supply. Watch for any renewed Middle East headlines or inventory surprises. Summer heat and driving season should provide a floor, but traders remain nimble after the recent volatility.
