Oil markets are focused on the upcoming US Iran talks, questioning whether Iran will act as an honest broker. Recent reports from Fox News and The New York Times highlight Iran seizing oil tankers and working on missiles and nuclear sites. Additionally, Iran claims to have a missile ready with a payload, signaling a tough stance ahead of negotiations.
A sign of Iran being trying to act tough by saying through a source that Iran says that the presence of CENTCOM or any regional military officials can jeopardize “indirect nuclear” talks between Iran and the US in Oman.
This came as the oil market got caught up in the risk off sell off as metals plummeted before they rebounded overnight We also saw risk off on the fact that ’s stock fell by 7% because of massive investments that they’re making in artificial intelligence which might be short term bearish for the stock but I would assume long term bullish for Amazon and long term bullish for energies as well.
According to the Associated Press, Oman mediated indirect talks on Friday between Iran and the United States, aiming to ease tensions after recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran’s violent crackdown on nationwide protests. Oman publicly acknowledged the discussions following AP journalists’ observations of both Iranian and American officials visiting a palace near Muscat to meet with the sultanate’s foreign minister, Badr al-Busaidi. The palace was left vacant after the delegations departed, leaving it uncertain if the talks had concluded for the day.
These negotiations mark a return to Oman for both countries, several months after previous dialogue collapsed in the aftermath of Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June. During that conflict, U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities reportedly destroyed numerous uranium centrifuges, while Israeli attacks severely damaged Iran’s air defenses and targeted its ballistic missile arsenal. Oman’s efforts to facilitate diplomatic engagement underscore its ongoing role as a regional mediator.
U.S. officials say Iran’s government is at its weakest since the 1979 revolution after recent mass protests challenged Supreme Leader Khamenei’s rule, prompting a deadly crackdown and new threats from President Trump. While the U.S. has major military assets nearby, it’s unclear if force would actually change Iran’s behavior. Gulf nations worry that military action could trigger a wider regional conflict. In Oman, separate meetings between Iranian and American delegations focused on setting the stage for future negotiations, with Oman’s foreign minister hosting both sides and U.S. military leaders present—a rare occurrence. The talks aimed to create the right conditions for resuming negotiations, but details remain limited as both sides have kept quiet about the meetings. Reports say that the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) reporter: It is possible that the negotiations will last longer, and there is a chance that the talks will continue in the coming days as well.
This comes as Mexico. Feeling the heat from President Trump may still try to keep oil flowing to Cuba. Reuters is reporting that “Mexican officials are evaluating how to send fuel to Cuba to help meet basic needs such as electricity and transportation without triggering reprisals from Washington, which has threatened tariffs against countries supplying fuel to the Caribbean island, four sources familiar with the matter said.
The sources said high-level Mexican officials have been talking to U.S. counterparts to gain clarity on the scope of the tariff threat outlined by President Donald Trump in an executive order and see whether there was a way to deliver the much-needed fuel. It remains uncertain whether Mexico will find a solution.
On the supply side, Venezuela’s oil exports are ramping up to 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) following U.S. license renewals, with , Vitol, and Trafigura facilitating Atlantic flows. India has resumed purchases, with acquiring 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, signaling a diversification away from Russian oil amid U.S. tariff threats. Russia’s oil ties with India are under pressure as Moscow leans more on China, with India’s Russian imports trending down from 1.2 million bpd to potentially 0.8 million bpd by March. Meanwhile, Alberta, Canada, is planning a new crude oil pipeline to the West Coast to boost exports to Asia, in partnership with the federal government.
All right, this is a cold front you could tell your grandkids—or even your great-grandkids—about, because it’s official: last week’s drawdown in inventory was the biggest ever in history. I think we should celebrate that! What the heck, it’s cold anyway—might as well. Because yesterday’s EIA Natural Gas Storage Report was nothing short of spectacular—a record-shattering withdrawal of 360 billion cubic feet (Bcf)!!
This marks the largest weekly net draw in the history of the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, eclipsing all previous records and underscoring the robust heating demand amid the Arctic blast that gripped much of the nation. The pull exceeded market expectations of around 378 Bcf but still dwarfed the five-year average of 190 Bcf for this period, leaving inventories at 2,463 Bcf, about 1.1% below the five-year norm and flipping from a surplus just a week prior. Come on you know you did not think that was going to happen.
This historic event wasn’t just numbers on a page; it was a testament to Mother Nature’s fury and the market’s resilience. The storm curtailed production by about 50 Bcf—or 15% of U.S. output—due to freeze-offs and shut-ins, while demand spiked to near 156 Bcf/d. Prices at Henry Hub soared to $9.03/MMBtu on January 28, a $4.05 jump from the prior week, proving storage’s critical role in bridging supply gaps during extremes. Despite the initial market shrug—futures dipped post-report as the draw fell short of whispers—prices rebounded modestly, with March contracts settling higher amid the buzz.
As we celebrate this milestone, it highlights natural gas’s indispensable place in keeping homes warm and grids stable, especially here in the Midwest where coal and nuclear stepped up but gas led the charge.
On the flip side of that, there are still some producers who think that we are producing way too much natural gas. While natural gas is poised for steady growth this year, producers need to maintain that disciplined edge, as another oversupply could crash prices—which might be bad for many producers.
The EIA projects dry natural gas production to climb 1% in 2026 to around 109 Bcf/d, driven by Permian Basin expansions and new takeaway capacity coming online in the latter half of the year. This follows a dip from 2025’s record 13.6 million bpd equivalent, with growth shifting to the Haynesville in 2027 as prices firm up. Analysts like those at Rystad and EIA see output reaching 121 Bcf/d by 2030, a 13% rise from 2025 levels, though forecasts vary by 5.6 Bcf/d through 2027 due to differing rig deployment assumptions. Winter walk-out inventories are eyed at 1.8 Tcf under normal weather, within historical norms, setting a balanced stage.
Fox weather is warning that the cold weather may still be ahead of us not only are we seeing cold here in the United Staes but another cold blast in Europe could even tighten LNG supplies. Fox Weather is warning that A fast-moving clipper system is expected to bring powerful wind gusts and a shot of snow to the Great Lakes and Northeast — regions that are already well above their average winter snow accumulations.
Much of the snow from January’s historic winter storm that dropped double-digit accumulations remains on the ground. Municipalities are rushing to remove snow piles ahead of this latest system and historic cold that will be ushered in with arctic wind gusts associated with this clipper this weekend.
