So far if there is a price shock in energy it is because those believed if the Strait of Hormuz was closed, oil would take a direct shot, to not pass go, do not collect $200, to at least $100 a barrel. And even as oil surges in the as EPIC Fury battle rages on and what is left of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is promising the closure of that strategic strait, WTI oil so far has not exceed the high price it hit last June during Operation Midnight Hammer.
Brent crude futures are currently trading at their highest premium over the Middle Eastern Dubai marker since 2022. There is minimal vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz due to reports of its closure, and is reportedly considering alternative export routes, including pipelines to the Red Sea, to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet Price action still is showing confidence that the US and Israeli led operation will succeed even as the remnant of the Iranian Regime lashes out. They warned that any movement of oil tankers would trigger a military response and stated that the IRGC Navy and army will firmly act against offending ships, preventing oil exports. He also noted pipelines are within reach and that regional energy resources will not fall to adversaries.
Yet what are Iran’s long-term capabilities. So Far Under President Trump’s direction, we have inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s military infrastructure, striking over 1,250 targets including IRGC command centers, air defenses, missile/drone sites, airfields, and naval assets—destroying nine ships and their headquarters while establishing air superiority.
We have the confirmed killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and 40 senior commanders, prompting Iran to form a leadership council. Despite Iranian missile retaliation killing eight in Israel and U.S. losses of 6 soldiers. President Trump says that the operation is ahead of schedule.
Brent crude and diesel prices are climbing, with Brent futures hitting an intraday high of $82.37 per barrel—the highest since January 2025— showing that US oil independence is buffering us a bit from the price shock and the operation is impacting Europe and Asia the most.
The main concern in energy markets is the sharp rise in diesel prices, as the diesel crack spread for April contracts has surged to $59.95 per barrel, it’s highest since 2022, when the market tightened following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Yet still not at a record. In October 2022, the gap between diesel and crude oil prices reached record highs—about $2.14 per gallon, which is almost $90 per barrel if you do the math. These high numbers were seen both in immediate deals and in longer-term contracts.
For example, in August 2023, the spread was $45.61 per barrel. Then, towards the end of 2025 and into 2026, diesel crack spreads doubled from less than $23 to about $49 per barrel in December 2025. The only time they’ve been higher in recent years was during the 2022 energy crisis, when they ranged from $45 to over $60 per barrel.
So, seeing the diesel crack spread at $59.95 per barrel for April would make it the highest level since those 2022 peaks, when the world was dealing with very tight supplies after COVID-19 and major global conflicts. This is much higher than what we saw in late 2025 (around $49) and 2023 (about $45).
Gas prices so far are already spiking at the pump as expected as AAA reports that the National Average gas price hit $3.109 a gallon up from $2.997 a gallon the day before and up from $2.883 from last month. Diesel Prices hit $3.891 up from $3.77 cents the day before and $3.630 a gallon from a month ago.
There is growing concern that if the conflict persists, gasoline and diesel prices will continue to rise. Iran, having few allies, has responded aggressively with missile strikes, targeting its neighbors and several OPEC countries. Notably, Iran has attacked Saudi Arabia, hitting its largest oil field, and has launched strikes or attacks into at least nine countries—some reports suggest the number could be over ten when considering broader impacts and attempted strikes.
Confirmed targets include Israel, which has experienced multiple waves of ballistic missiles aimed at population centers, military sites, and cities like Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, resulting in dozens of casualties and extensive interception efforts by Israeli defenses.
Other countries hit by Iranian strikes include Iraq, with attacks on U.S. bases near Erbil; Jordan, where U.S. and allied military facilities have been targeted; Kuwait, which saw missile and drone strikes on bases such as Ali Al Salem Air Base and Camp Arifjan; Bahrain, including U.S. Naval Support Activity Bahrain (Fifth Fleet HQ); Qatar, with strikes on Al Udeid Air Base and production halts at energy sites; and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which faced extensive attacks affecting Al Dhafra Air Base, Abu Dhabi, Dubai areas, airports, ports, and civilian infrastructure, including at least one civilian fatality. Saudi Arabia was also targeted, with strikes on Prince Sultan Airbase, the Ras Tanura refinery (shut down as a precaution), and the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh.
Oman has reported port or other strikes as well. These attacks have primarily focused on U.S. bases but have often spilled over to civilian and energy infrastructure, such as halted LNG production in Qatar, threatened oil refineries, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran claims to have struck up to 27 U.S. and allied installations. While many projectiles were intercepted, the impacts have led to casualties among U.S. troops and civilians, infrastructure damage, and significant economic consequences, including surges in oil and gas prices.
Get the market is being somewhat calm because it’s unlikely Iran is going to be able to continue this in fact thank you man they’ve attacked 4 OPEC nations where they and others and that’s strategic mistake alienating people that potentially would have had some sympathy for the Iranian regime
Usual allies—such as Hezbollah Which has been severely weakened by Israel, the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and Syria (now distant after Assad)—have mostly failed to respond effectively or support Iran’s actions.
Instead of drawing support, Iran’s retaliation has focused on Arab neighbors, which has unified the Gulf states against Tehran and led countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to offer military assistance.
No major world powers, including Russia or China, have stepped in with military help; most have issued little or no public criticism of U.S. or Israeli actions. Iran’s attacks on civilian and economic sites in the Gulf are widely viewed as a strategic error, resulting in loss of regional goodwill and increasing its isolation.
Right now, Iran and rightly so has few friends if any. Iran is not winning friends or influencing people. The Gulf states are teaming up with the U.S. and aren’t shy about calling out Iran, while Western countries are pushing for diplomacy. Iran’s usual allies and proxies haven’t really stepped up, so it’s pretty much alone. With only a handful of dependable partners, the Iranian government is feeling the heat at home and risks making things even worse if it keeps escalating. Honestly, nobody knows exactly where this is headed, but if Iran ramps up its counterattacks, things could get even messier, but it will the last desperate acts of a regime that is soon going to end up with other evil regimes on the dustbin of history.
Once the shooting stops, the risk premium evaporates overnight — history shows these “war pops” fade 70-80% within days of a ceasefire. Expect Brent to drop back toward the mid-$60s to low $70s quickly, pulling pump prices down 30-60¢/gallon nationally in 2-4 weeks and potentially sub-$2.80 by summer if OPEC+ opens the taps.
But if it’s extended: We’d be warning this could get ugly and expensive for a while. Prolonged fighting plus the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil) keeps the risk premium baked in and could push Brent to $90-$110+ (some models even flag $120-125 in a worst-case multi-month closure) but let’s face it those models so far have been on the high side.
Yet if it does happen that. That translates to another 50¢-$1.00+ at the pump on top of where we are now — national averages climbing toward $3.75-$4.25/gallon and staying there as long as the Hormuz chokepoint stays contested.
Refiners would scramble, margins would blow out, and we’d start seeing regional shortages and $5+ pockets in the Northeast and California. Bottom line: short war = quick relief at the pump; long war. which is unlikely we may see challenges. Get because of US energy policy we would be buffered much longer than the rest of the world.
Nat Gas in Europe is also feeling the pinch of war and Qatar is not safe from Iran’s desperation.
QatarEnergy—the world’s largest LNG producer—had to suspend production of liquefied natural gas and associated products at its Ras Laffan facility following Iranian drone attacks on key sites in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City.
While no casualties were reported from the strikes, the precautionary halt removes a substantial portion of global supply, equivalent to roughly 20% of worldwide LNG output, intensifying fears of prolonged disruptions. The European natural gas prices have reacted sharply, with the benchmark TTF front-month contract surging significantly and us prices also saw some limited support from the shutdown.
Compounding the supply pressure, no LNG vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, with tanker traffic effectively stalled despite no formal blockade.
Because of the heightened security threats, canceled war risk insurance coverage by major providers, and explicit warnings from Iranian authorities have left numerous vessels anchored or avoiding the chokepoint, which handles a critical share of global LNG flows, primarily from Qatar. This has created an effective cutoff for a meaningful portion of seaborne LNG supply.
More Headlines Oil storage infrastructure in Fujairah in the UEA has reportedly become the latest energy facility targeted in the Middle East Gulf (MEG) war, pitching Iran against the US and Israel.
Following strikes that disrupted production at the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia and QatarEnergy’s LNG facility in Qatar, reports and footage emerged on Tuesday of an incident at the Fujairah Oil Terminal (FOT).
Reports indicate Fujairah’s quick response highlights the UAE’s robust energy infrastructure security, with unmatched safety protocols. The JSW terminal issue was managed, Fujairah stays operational, and UAE infrastructure remains resilient. Fundamentals are unchanged.
