Oil prices rise on the storm of wars, with some backdoor support from Tropical Storm Bertha as geopolitical supply fears and storm-related disruptions are fueling the rally, with traders watching for any further escalation.
has surged back above $85–$88 a barrel (pushing toward recent highs near $90 in intraday trade), its strongest run since early June, as Houthi rebels escalate attacks on Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea and Bertha drenches refinery row along the Gulf Coast.
Fox Weather reported that Tropical Storm Bertha made landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana, on July 22 with 45–50 mph winds and is now hugging the northern Gulf Coast, tracking west toward the upper Texas coast before moving inland.
It’s drenching the region with 1–4+ inches of rain (isolated higher amounts) and bringing coastal flooding threats right through refinery-heavy areas. Operators have already shut in production at key Gulf assets, including Chevron’s Petronius platform (with personnel evacuated); broader precautions are in place across other facilities as the slow-moving system lingers.
Fox Weather reports that Tropical Storm Bertha is back in the northern Gulf and racing toward Texas, where it is expected to make a second landfall later Thursday after striking southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon. Bertha has weakened slightly as it lashes parts of the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts with tropical-storm-force winds and coastal flooding. Hurricane Bertha was about 95 miles southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and is moving west-northwest at 13 mph.
And to add to the drama in Texas, according to Fox Weather, a magnitude 5.0 earthquake struck nearly 24 miles southeast of Miami, TX in the state’s Panhandle region at 6:21 local time on Thursday. The quake’s epicenter was relatively shallow at just 3.42 miles below the surface. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any impact on oil production or refineries.
Yet it’s leading the war storm rally as Houthi forces claimed strikes on two Saudi tankers (Encelia and Layla) in the Red Sea, with one hit by a projectile causing a fire; they’ve declared a naval blockade on Saudi ports, forcing multiple tankers to divert or turn back via the Suez Canal and adding to the “two-chokepoint” squeeze with ongoing Strait of Hormuz risks according to reports.
The dynamic on the chart looks more like a breakout to the upside, and as we’re getting overextended, it seems to be a one-way ticket. And we’re getting more headlines that Iran targeted 3 US bases in Kuwait with drones overnight as well as a report that Iran shot for missiles and six drones at Jordan. The reports also say that two were killed at the Iran border crossing.
This comes after report set US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the Iranians are begging to make a deal both directly and indirectly saying quote let’s do a deal let’s do a deal let’s talk but he added that every time that the US and Iran agree on a ceasefire the people that are in there charge either break it or they want to change it so they’re going to continue to pay the price and they’re going every night the price gets higher and higher he added so the price of the Iranians gets higher and higher and at this point so does oil.
The surge is raising fresh alarms over potential shortages, as veteran energy reporter Amena Bakr warns: “This is no longer just headline volatility. Coordinated pressure on both major oil routes, escalating military conflict with no clear path to de-escalation, and direct tanker targeting are creating a structural supply risk. There is no spare capacity that can replace 25% of the global supply.
Analysts echo the concern: simultaneous threats to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could disrupt flows equivalent to roughly a quarter of world oil supply, with Saudi exports already rerouting heavily through the vulnerable Red Sea route. Tanker traffic has plunged, diversions are mounting, and freight/war-risk premiums are spiking.
Yet the counterargument to this is that the “structural shortage” narrative overstates the risk — buffers, reroutes, and demand softness are already cushioning the blow.
While the dual-chokepoint fears are real, several mitigating factors suggest this isn’t an unmanageable crisis so far, as alternative supplies and rerouting are working.
The IEA notes that higher exports from the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan, plus Saudi/UAE volumes bypassing Hormuz via Red Sea pipelines and ports like Yanbu, have helped offset much of the Gulf shortfall. Gulf crude exports remain below peak but well above early-conflict lows. The key will be if the US can counteract the Houthi Rebel attacks, which they have done before.
Strategic reserves and inventory draw provide a bridge. Coordinated emergency stock releases (hundreds of millions of barrels already) continue flowing, with over a billion barrels still available in government reserves. US and global commercial inventories have held up better than feared in some cases, partly thanks to weaker Chinese imports.
Demand destruction and economic slowdowns act as a natural brake. Elevated prices have already curbed global oil demand (IEA sees a sharp year-on-year drop in Q2 2026), especially in China and non-OECD regions. This self-correcting mechanism limits how high prices can sustainably go before buyers pull back further. Also, the US military will win, and we will see a rapid recovery potential if tensions ease.
History tells us that when confidence returns to the shipping lanes, oil flows can bounce back faster than many people think. It may take weeks or months to get everything fully back to normal, but markets are pretty good at finding a way. OPEC+ still has some spare barrels it can bring on, and if prices stay too high for too long, you can bet producers outside OPEC will step up and consumers will start cutting back. In other words, high prices can plant the seeds for their own cure.
Natural gas also caught a bid today as Tropical Storm Bertha stirred up concerns about Gulf Coast energy infrastructure. Henry Hub August futures were up modestly, trading around $3.25 to $3.40, as traders kept one eye on LNG terminals, pipelines, and gas output along the Louisiana-Texas coast. So far, this looks more like a weather scare than a full-blown supply crisis, but with Bertha crawling along and dumping heavy rain, the market is right to add a little storm premium.
Today’s EIA storage report, covering the week ending July 18, is expected to show another solid injection of about 35 to 40 Bcf, which would keep inventories comfortably above the five-year average. If the build comes in bigger than expected, it could put a lid on the rally. If it is smaller, especially because of heat or some early storm-related disruptions, natural gas could get another boost. Bottom line: this is classic weather-market action. Bertha gives prices a reason to run, but strong production and healthy storage mean the bulls still have to prove this is more than just a quick storm pop.
Yet in the big picture, as we look out on the horizon long term, are we near a major bottom for natural gas prices? I mean, right now we’re in the era of low prices, where production is exceeding demand. But history shows us that major market bottoms are built in these types of situations, where supplies of natural gas exceed demand.
Yes, another historic point where low prices cure low prices. And as we look forward, with the demand coming from electricity and natural gas, and the world’s inability to meet demand with renewable fuels, and the expanding export potential of the United States, it is going to dramatically change the face of this market that is living in complacency.
This is when you really would love to have options far out in the future, that you could lock in these prices, because we believe that prices a year from now or two will be substantially higher than they are now.
