Traders are starting to creep back after the President’s Day holiday with headlines reporting that the part of Strait of Hormuz was closed for hours due to Iranian drills, ahead of another round of US-Iran talks that will no doubt include some “strait talk” and some straight talk as well. It seems that Iran, and especially Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wants to show how tough they are ahead of these talks and demonstrate that he is not averse to trying to damage the global economy by attempting to disrupt global oil supply.
So, when he is not busy slaughtering his own people who dared to speak out about how the regime has devastated the country economically by focusing more on regional domination and supporting terror, they are going into talks with the United States and threatening a major portion of the global oil supply to show just how determined they are to disrupt the average daily flow of oil (including , condensate, and petroleum products like refined fuels)—about 20 million barrels per day (b/d).To put it simply, about 20% of all petroleum liquids used worldwide, and over a quarter—usually around 27%—of the oil traded by sea, comes through this area. Roughly 15 to 15.5 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate, plus another 4.5 to 6 million barrels per day of refined petroleum products and other cargo.
In fact, Iran’s Khamenei who is called the Supreme Leader and others just call him a mass murderer, is saying that the US is predetermining negotiations and its outcome is idiotic. Now I don’t know if his idiotic is killing a bunch of innocent men, women and children and obviously anybody could have that has a certain form of madness. Khamenei also said that, “The US President says their army is the world’s strongest, but the strongest army in the world can sometimes be slapped so hard, it cannot get up. He also said that, “More dangerous than a US warship is the weapon that can send it to the bottom of the sea.
Iran, unsurprisingly, prefers to avoid discussion of its history of suppressing and killing its own citizens. According to Iranian state TV, the upcoming negotiations with the United States will be conducted indirectly and will center exclusively on Iran’s nuclear program, leaving out any internal matters such as the recent violent crackdown on protesters.
President Trump, speaking from Air Force One en route to Washington, commented on the talks: “I’ll be involved in those talks — indirectly — and they’ll be very important, and we’ll see what can happen. Typically, Iran’s a very tough negotiator… I would say they’re bad negotiators, because we could have had a deal instead of sending the B2s in to knock out their nuclear potential, and we had to send the B2s. I hope they’re going to be more reasonable. I think they want to make a deal.”
Oil prices are definitely moving up on the concerns that these talks are not going to go well there’s a lot of skepticism as well in the likelihood of Iran getting sanctions lifted are very small unless there’s some major concessions.
Reuters is also reporting that, “Negotiators from Ukraine and Russia gathered in Geneva on Tuesday for two days of U.S.-mediated peace talks that will focus on the main sticking point of land, with U.S. President Donald Trump pressing Kyiv to act fast to reach a deal. Trump is pressing Moscow and Kyiv to reach a deal to end Europe’s biggest war since 1945, though Zelenskiy has complained that his country is facing the greatest pressure to make concession Ahead of the talks, Russia carried out heavy airstrikes overnight across swathes of Ukraine, inflicting severe damage on the power network in the southern port city of Odesa, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said left tens of thousands without heat and water. Zelenskiy called for Kyiv’s allies to increase pressure on Russia to reach a “real and just” peace deal via tougher sanctions and weapons supplies to Ukraine. Trump pointed to Ukraine when asked by reporters what he was expecting from the talks in Geneva, which will follow a morning of negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials at a different venue in the Swiss lakeside city.
Also Reuters is reporting fire broke out at the Ilsky refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region after a drone attack, local authorities said on Tuesday, adding that a reservoir with oil products was damaged. Ukraine earlier this month resumed attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as the U.S.-brokered peace talks have so far failed to yield tangible results.
The U.S. military has boarded yet another tanker in its intensifying crackdown on Venezuela’s shadow fleet operations. This time, forces intercepted the Panamanian-flagged Veronica III in the Indian Ocean—marking the second such boarding in just a week. Tracked all the way from the Caribbean, the vessel was carrying nearly 2 million barrels of crude and fuel oil linked to sanctioned Venezuelan networks. The Pentagon’s message was clear: “Distance does not protect you.” They conducted a smooth right-of-visit maritime interdiction, shutting it down without incident. This follows the earlier seizure of the Aquila II and is part of a broader Trump administration push, including a declared quarantine on tankers tied to Venezuelan exports. With at least seven vessels already seized since last year, Washington is flexing its reach far beyond the Western Hemisphere to choke off illicit flows. Watch more enforcement actions
Nigeria is making a move with their crude production hitting 46 million barrels per day in January (hitting about 1.459 mbpd by some secondary sources). That’s the highest since mid-last year, up solidly from December’s 1.42 mbpd. The country is now running at roughly 97% of its OPEC+ quota (around 1.5 mbpd target). Africa’s oil giant finally catching some momentum—credit better security in key areas and steady efforts to ramp output. If this trend holds, it could provide a nice buffer amid all the geopolitical noise elsewhere.
Global warming might not actually be global. Some parts are warming faster than others! A report overnight that the European Union needs to spend more money to move away from hard to reach carbons because Europe is the fastest warming place on the planet. That’s interesting.
We had Global Warming in Chicago and Wisconsin! We hit an all-time temperature yesterday and let me tell you global warming never felt so good! sold off as the unseasonably warm temperatures swept across key demand regions. Yesterday in Chicago, we shattered a century-old record with a high of 65 degrees on February 16—blowing past the previous mark of 58 degrees set way back in 1921. Folks were out in shirt sleeves enjoying what felt like a fake spring, but for nat gas bulls, this warmth is no picnic. It’s slashing heating demand and setting the stage for lighter storage pulls ahead.
Let’s talk about inventory expectations for this week’s EIA report, set for release on Thursday, February 19 (covering the week ending February 13). After last week’s -249 Bcf withdrawal left stocks at 2,214 Bcf—about 5.5% below the five-year average and 4% under year-ago levels—analysts are bracing for a much smaller draw this time around. With temps rising across the eastern U.S., residential and commercial demand has plunged by over 9 Bcf/d, and overall U.S. gas demand is down nearly 15 Bcf/d week-over-week, per S&P Global data. Consensus is pointing to a pull in the 100-150 Bcf range, though exact forecasts are still firming up—warmer weather like Chicago’s record-breaker is the big culprit here, easing pressure on supplies and potentially widening the deficit to norms even further if draws stay light.
Prices are feeling the heat (or lack thereof). The March contract settled around $3.22/MMBtu yesterday, up slightly but facing downside risks as milder forecasts dominate. We’re seeing U.S. production ticking up to about 108.5 Bcf/d, with LNG feedgas holding strong near record highs of 18.3 Bcf/d. Looking longer-term, EIA’s latest STEO bumps up the 2026 Henry Hub average to $4.30/MMBtu, reflecting tighter end-of-season stocks expected below 1.9 Tcf by late March—8% under prior outlooks due to earlier cold snaps. But with production growth projected at 2% this year to 120.8 Bcf/d, driven by Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville, we’re set for record highs in 2027.
Bottom line: This warm spell is a bearish signal short-term, pressuring prices and storage draws. Keep an eye on weather models because if the mild pattern holds, we could see more downside. But don’t count out volatility; nat gas loves a surprise. Besides Fox Weather says that “Winter’s grip is holding on tight over the Northern Tier as the FOX Forecast Center is tracking yet another round of snow, even ice and freezing rain through Thursday. The complex system will span over 1,000 miles, bringing dangerous snow and icing from the Plains to New England this week.” So what your saying is winter is not over yet! Sigh
