After a sharp sell-off yesterday fueled by hopeful headlines from Iran, the oil bulls are back in the saddle this morning. The twist of fate came after US vice president JD Vance told Fox News that Iran is not yet “willing to acknowledge some of you not of US Presidents Donald Trump red lines particularly those regarding the Islamic republic’s nuclear program” putting a damper on the optimism after the talks and an Axios report that says that the US is much closer to a war with Iran than most people think.
Axios is saying that that we’re inching closer to a major Middle East showdown than anyone on Main Street realizes. This comes as Iran and Russia are flexing their muscles together in military drills right in the Gulf of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean today. Also, there’s breaking news that Russia and Ukraine’s peace talks hit a brick wall. Reuters is reporting that the latest Geneva sit-down between Ukraine and Russia was over before it started—barely two hours and done. President Zelenskiy called the talks “difficult,” and he’s pointing the finger at Moscow for stonewalling.
But the main concern for oil is Iran and a potential attack. Axios reports that their sources say the attack would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that’s much broader in scope — and more existential for the regime — than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran’s underground nuclear facilities. They say that “Such a war would have a dramatic influence on the entire region and major implications for the remaining three years of the Trump presidency. With the attention of Congress and the public otherwise occupied, there is little public debate about what could be the most consequential U.S. military intervention in the Middle East in at least a decade.
Billion-dollar oil baby! Keeping the market from blowing too far out of control is the fact that we’re getting more oil from Venezuela in fact US Secrtary of Energy Chris Wright told John Roberts at Fox News that Venezuelan oil sales have already surpassed $1 BILLION, will surpass $5 BILLION in the coming months, and will be $10 BILLION a year. That’s great news for Venezuela and a great win for President Trump’s energy policy.
This comes as the International Energy Agency seems to be whining that “global divisions over energy policy widening” The Financial Times reports that Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (). Who says that fracturing in the global order is creating stark divisions on energy approaches, with climate change slipping down the international policy agenda.
Birol points out that countries are splitting off in different directions when it comes to energy priorities. On one side, you’ve got fuel-importing nations pushing for renewables, energy efficiency, and clean energy—hoping to make energy more secure and affordable. On the other, some countries are doubling down on making sure they have plenty of traditional fuels like oil and gas. It’s all tied to bigger geopolitical and policy tensions, especially with the U.S. administration pressuring the IEA to get back to its roots and focus on energy security rather than being all-in on clean energy. In fact, they’ve even threatened to cut funding or pull out entirely if the agency doesn’t make changes.
Even though clean energy is still gaining ground in some places (like with the growth of renewables), Birol says we’re seeing more policy flip-flops and different approaches. For example, the U.S. has rolled back some climate regulations, and that’s making the gap between advanced economies and emerging markets even wider.
These divisions risk slowing coordinated global progress on energy transitions, affordability, and security—especially as demand for energy services rises (including from AI/data centers).
Yet the problem is that the International Energy Agency has been an abject failure not only with its projections of where the market is going, but also in actually reducing global carbon. Some of their questionable predictions and their focus on wealth redistribution over climate are some of the big problems. It seems that the International Energy Agency’s real goal isn’t about climate change, but more about rich countries subsidizing poor countries so that they can pollute. This is the agency, of course, that told us to stop investing in fossil fuels years ago, which would have been a disaster for the global economy and for the poor and middle class. The International Energy Agency’s obsession with climate over reality has caused the cost of energy to rise for the poor and middle class.
Natural gas is getting spring fever as prices continue to sell off as folks aren’t cranking up the heat as much. Less heating demand = lower prices right now—great news for anyone paying heating bills or using gas for power. Prices are dipping thanks to this milder stretch.
And because US producers continue to produce a record amount we could be heading towards a natural gas glut believe it or not. EBW Analytics are pointing to a growing pile-up of extra natural gas supply. Production is hitting record highs this year and keeps climbing, especially from big areas like the Marcellus (East Coast region), Haynesville (ramping up rigs big time), and Permian Basin (with major new pipelines planned to haul even more gas out starting later in 2026).
On the demand side, growth is slowing down a bit for the middle-to-late part of 2026—no huge new jumps expected in things like exports or power use.
Short-term (next 7-10 days), a quick cold snap coming early next week plus the startup of Golden Pass LNG’s first train (which will pull some gas to turn into export fuel) could give prices a little boost and keep things supported for now. But overall, the bigger picture is leaning bearish (downward pressure) on NYMEX futures prices. With all this extra supply building up, storage levels could end up 200+ billion cubic feet above the usual five-year average by early June—and it might keep growing into the second half of 2026. Bottom line: Enjoy the warm vibes and cheaper gas bills while they last—spring is looking extra comfy
