- USD/CAD three‑day recovery meets strong resistance at 20‑day SMA
- Near‑term bias still bearish, though downside appears limited
- Momentum stabilizes: indicators edge up from neutral
is extending its three‑session rebound from one‑month lows near 1.3525, climbing toward a one‑week high around the 20‑day SMA at 1.3650. The remains supported by rising geopolitical tensions and Canada’s wider‑than‑expected January trade deficit, though elevated should continue to offer some support to the loonie. Traders now await key data from both economies, including US and Canada’s labour‑market report.
The momentum signals are mixed but stabilizing. The RSI is steady near the neutral 50 level, suggesting limited near‑term upside, while the MACD lifts above its signal line toward zero. The stochastics are also turning higher, supporting the ongoing rebound but still lacking strong momentum.
Resistance stretches from the 20‑day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3635 toward the key 1.3700 zone, where the 50‑day SMA meets the short‑term downtrend line. A breakout could target 1.3730 and then the 200‑day SMA near 1.3800.
Support below the 20‑day SMA appears at 1.3575, then weekly lows near 1.3525, with the four‑month and yearly low at 1.3471 further down.
Despite modest advances, USD/CAD remains near‑term bearish as selling interest persists – since late January – in the 1.3600-1.3700 band, though downside looks limited while the pair holds above the 20‑day SMA.
