Big news on the front as exports continue and big deals are being made this comes as West TX intermediate oil futures fall once again from the higher end of that $65 barrel trading range that it just can’t seem to get out of this comes as the International Energy Agency doubles down on its call for an oil glut even as they admit that oil supplies plunged by 1.2 million barrels in January and a seeming reduction in the Iranian attack risk after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he was skeptical that president trump could make a deal with the Iranian regime but at the same time seemed to suggest that if anybody could do it President Trump might Just be the guy that could do it.
Let’s start with Venezuela. It has been just a little over a month since the United States removed Nicolás Maduro the de facto leader or “dictator” of Venezuela from power yet already Both the United States and the people of Venezuela are benefiting from an increase in Venezuelan oil exports as well as a major oil deal with India That will help them get off their addiction to that Russian heavy oil. It should also Bloomberg reported that Indian private refiner has received a general license from the United States that will allow it to purchase Venezuelan oil directly, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Reliance, owned by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, operates the world’s largest refinery complex. Separately, the Indian government has asked state-owned refiners to consider buying more Venezuelan crude and oil from the US after signing a trade agreement earlier this month.
This comes as energy secretary Chris Wright visited Venezuelans interim president Delcy Rodriguez on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal wrote “ Energy Secretary Chris Wright said “enormous progress” is being made with Venezuela’s regime in the transformation of its decrepit oil industry, but that the objective is an end to sanctions and a transition toward democracy. “Boy, if things go in a positive direction, that’s the goal,” Wright told a small group of reporters after meeting with Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, on Wednesday. “That’s the goal is to have a representative government and free trade and free commerce.”
Obviously that outcome would be a huge win for the people of Venezuela and for the people of the United States But if this early success that we’ve seen in Venezuela continues it should open the door for a flood of investment. US Energy Secretary Wright is talking big—expecting another $5 billion in Venezuelan oil sales. That’s a comeback story for Venezuela and a sign of renewed engagement in a sector many thought was on the ropes. NBC confirms over $1 billion in sales have already crossed the finish line.
And while many people are skeptical with oil prices being low that there will be a lot of investment in Venezuelan oil, I think the upside and the quality of the oil is going to once again surprise people that have already been surprised by the success that they’ve had in Venezuela already.
Even the New York Times is seeing the natural Gas bright spot that many have been missing, they have reported “The South American country has natural gas that could be extracted and exported quickly, but geopolitical challenges have stymied development.” Venezuela, which holds vast untapped natural gas reserves (particularly offshore fields near its maritime border with Trinidad and Tobago) could potentially be developed and exported relatively quickly compared to its what the New York Times suggests is Venezuela’s heavily sanctioned and complex oil sector.
The Times says that companies like Shell have shown interest for years, as Venezuela has been more open to foreign involvement in gas than in oil. However, the Times says that major obstacles include ongoing U.S. sanctions on the Venezuelan government and state oil company PDVSA, which hinder investment and operations. Of course, that is a pretty negative assessment and should acknowledge the odds are much better that they were just over a month ago when Maduro was there.
The Times says that expanding production would also require cross-border cooperation with Trinidad and Tobago, which has the necessary infrastructure (pipelines and export facilities) that Venezuela lacks for quick monetization. This contrasts with Venezuela’s oil, where major international companies remain reluctant due to political risks and asset control issues, even amid recent geopolitical shifts (e.g., references to events involving Nicolás Maduro in early 2026). Natural gas is seen as a potentially quicker “prize” for energy companies.
The or the international oil glut proponents were also surprised by the fact that global oil supplies fell by 1.2 million barrels in January. The IEA blamed they’re big mess on the oil glut on severe weather in North America plus outages and constraints that hit Kazakh, Russian and Venezuelan flows.
Still, the IEA keeps its gloomy outlook on demand. They project global oil supply will climb by 3.73 million barrels a day—which might be accurate—but they remain pessimistic about demand, trimming their growth estimate from 3.73 million barrels per day to just 3.69 million barrels per day. According to their math, this would mean oil supplies will increase by 2.4 million barrels in 2026, slightly below their earlier forecast of a 2.5 million barrel bump. In other words, they’re sticking with their “oil glut” prediction. To break it down: the IEA now says worldwide oil demand will only rise by 850,000 barrels per day this year, down from their previous call of 930,000 barrels per day. So, to keep the glut story alive, they’ve had to tweak their demand numbers downward—which looks a lot like adjusting the figures to fit a narrative, especially since the real-world data isn’t backing it up so far.
And by betting against the US economy, I think the IEA is making a big mistake because the growth in the US is going to encourage growth around the globe and our expectation is that they are going to be a big mess once again on demand expectations they’re going to be way low.
In fact, there’s going to be a high stakes summit with president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, both the United States and China, China needs to find a way to save the US China trade war ceasefire, or they will face severe economic pain at home. Chinese shipments to the US plummeted by 20.2% year-on-year in April 2025 following the initial “reciprocal” tariffs of 34%, which later escalated. Overall, exports to the US fell 19.9% for the full year of 2025.
And those bargain-basement ecommerce players quickly learned they couldn’t unload their cut-rate goods in the US and out-muscle American manufacturers unless they offered jaw-dropping markdowns. As a result, platforms hawking imitation US products—think Shein and Temu—watched sales tumble 30.4%, proving that the days of easy undercutting are over.
Despite these losses, China’s overall exports grew 5.5% in 2025 (in US dollar terms), pushing its trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion. This surplus, however, stemmed from overproduction and weak domestic consumption, exacerbating internal imbalances and flooding global markets with low-priced stuff.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains deeply skeptical about any deal with Iran, Axios reports. That’s s called “healthy suspicion”—especially when energy and security are intertwined. Still, Netanyahu suggests President Trump might pull off a positive agreement, signaling cautious optimism amid ongoing negotiations. The market loves optimism, but don’t forget the underlying tension.
Reports say that the United States is escalating its military presence in the Middle East as tensions rise with Iran. President Donald Trump has ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford, the nation’s newest and largest aircraft carrier, to leave the Caribbean and head toward Iran. This move is part of a broader show of force, with an “armada” of U.S. warships and additional troops deployed to the region, coinciding with renewed nuclear talks following Iran’s crackdown on protests earlier this year. The USS Gerald R. Ford previously operated near Venezuela as part of U.S. pressure efforts prior to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, commemorating the Islamic Revolution, struck a defiant stance, boasting of broad public support and expressing confidence despite ongoing negotiations with Washington. Reports also indicate the U.S. is considering dispatching a second carrier strike group, further signaling increased military readiness, even as no official deployment order has been confirmed.
The other big news that helped drop the oil was the talk of another rumored peace deal that would involve Russia and Russian President Valdimir Putin to be reaccepted into the global community. Russia is rumored to be proposing a dramatic return to the U.S. dollar settlement system as part of an economic reset with the Trump administration.
According to an internal Kremlin memo reviewed by Bloomberg, Russia is laying out seven areas for economic realignment—contingent on a peace deal for Ukraine. If implemented, Russia’s pivot would mark a shift back to dollar dominance. Reuters reported that Russia has outlined potential areas for economic cooperation with the Trump administration, including a possible return to using the U.S. dollar in bilateral dealings, Bloomberg News reported, citing an internal Kremlin memo. The senior-level document, dated this year, sets out seven areas where Russian and U.S. economic objectives align after any Ukraine war settlement, the report said.
These include cooperation on promoting fossil fuels over renewable energy, as well as collaborative ventures in natural gas, offshore petroleum and strategic minerals that could benefit American firms, it said. It would offer Preferential treatment for U.S. companies re-entering the Russian consumer market—think special deals and fast lanes.
The Kremlin memo says returning to the dollar would steady Russia’s economy, curb currency swings, and grow its foreign exchange market. For the U.S., it’s a chance to reinforce the dollar’s global muscle and loosen Moscow’s financial ties to Beijing. But Western officials aren’t buying it just yet—Russia has shifted nearly 90% of its trade with China and India into national currencies since 2022. Critics say Putin won’t risk his strategic alliance with China, a key economic lifeline.
Yet Russia is desperate, they are in a quagmire in Ukraine as their energy revenue life blood plunged to a multi-year low in January 2026, thanks to sanctions and India’s decision to cut Russian oil purchases in favor of U.S. and now more Venezuelan oil supply. Probably the only thing that has been saving Russia these days is their massive purchases of gold over the last couple of years.
Natural gas traders we’re getting all psyched up for a massive drop in supply and while they got that drop wasn’t quite as big as anticipated. Jodi Shafto at Intelligence explained that natural gas futures initially surged in anticipation of a larger storage withdrawal for the week ending February 6, but the gains quickly faded once the storage data was released to traders. According to the Energy Information Administration, as of Friday, February 6, 2026, there were 2,214 billion cubic feet of working gas in storage. That’s a drop of 249 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks are 97 Bcf lower than they were at this time last year and 130 Bcf below the five-year average, which sits at 2,344 Bcf. Even so, with 2,214 Bcf in storage, we’re still within the typical five-year historical range.
NGI said price action was varied at hubs nationwide Thursday. While the overall bias was lower, some gains and losses went against shifting forecasts, which pointed to softer demand in the East and Central U.S. and stronger demand in the West.
And the weather outlook is still going to be the key. Further out Fox Weather is reporting that the latest climate forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that an El Niño climate pattern is on track to arrive midway through hurricane season — a pattern that has historically suppressed hurricane and other tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean. That is great news.
Fox Weather explains that El Niño is one of three climatological phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that describe natural changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation that can greatly influence global weather. El Niño describes warmer conditions, while La Niña describes colder conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures are close to average.
Throughout the winter, conditions remained in a La Niña state, as the eastern U.S. saw rounds of Arctic air plunge temperatures, fueling an active stretch of winter storms that brought the most snow that many places in the Northeast have seen in recent years.
According to NOAA, the ENSO has begun the transition toward a neutral state, with signals that El Niño will arrive this summer — timing that’s on track with last year’s long-range forecasts. There is a 50–60 percent chance El Niño conditions develop right as the heart of hurricane season gets underway, according to the latest guidance. Typically, winds associated with El Niño often interfere with tropical development in the Atlantic. “The warmer waters and enhanced rising air across the Pacific create “hostile” upper-level winds that blow across the Caribbean and the Main Development Region (MDR),” the FOX Forecast Center said Thursday. “These strong westerly winds can tilt or disrupt a developing storm’s structure, preventing intensification and promoting a more stable atmosphere. “These trends are supported by historical data.
