As the US-Iran conflict entered its 132nd day, concerns regarding the stability of the existing agreement intensified on Wednesday. The U.S. military announced the completion of another round of strikes on Iran, occurring shortly after President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran to be over.
Central Command (Centcom) said it struck about 90 military targets in the country, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, and drone storage sites.
Centcom said the attacks were aimed at further degrading Iran’s ability to strike commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The latest rounds of hostilities were framed as retaliation for Iran’s attacks on three oil tankers in Hormuz.
Trump on Wednesday said a ceasefire between the two was now “over” and that he didn’t want to deal with Iran anymore.
Speaking to reporters earlier at a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Türkiye, Trump said: “We’re going to hit [Iran] hard tonight.” He suggested that the U.S. could “knock out more boats,” claiming that 28 vessels were struck on Tuesday night.
Trump added that the U.S. may reinstate a blockade of Iranian ports, a move Washington had used after Iran had effectively closed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM announced in June that all blockade enforcement had ended as part of a deal with Iran.
However, he did hint that he would be open to negotiations continuing should both parties be willing to engage with each other.
Trump did not repeat his announcement of the termination of the interim ceasefire deal during a closed NATO alliance leaders’ meeting, Reuters reported, citing a source familiar with the matter.
The comments came after Iranian armed forces said on Wednesday they had attacked U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, in retaliation for American strikes on targets in Iran and Washington’s decision to revoke a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil.
On Thursday, the situation looked grimmer as Iran’s military said it had carried out drone strikes targeting “US bases and strategic centres” in the Gulf about an hour ago.
The strikes targeted a Patriot miss
ile system in Kuwait, an early warning satellite antenna site in Qatar, and fuel tanks belonging to the US military in Bahrain.
The Iranian military said it used “a large number of various types of drones” in the attacks.
It said Iran’s Armed Forces “will not allow the goals and aspirations of the foolish President of the United States to be realized under any circumstances and will defend the lofty ideals of the Islamic Revolution until final victory”.
On Wednesday, pared some gains after surging above 8%, as President Donald Trump said he didn’t think a war with Iran would resume. Still, the biggest escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran since the signing of their interim peace deal kept oil traders on edge and crude prices firmly higher.
On Thursday, oil futures are trading near yesterday’s closing level, while the status of the Strait of Hormuz is still intact, and the is hovering above 100, a psychological key level where a sustainable move could push the dollar index towards the next key level at 102.
Upon evaluating the movements of on the daily chart, amid such a grimmer situation, I observe that though gold futures are showing some strength, after testing the day’s low at $4.063.40, and currently trading near the day’s high at $4,115, but still below the key resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,126), which is trading below the 20 EMA ($4,175), and both of them have formed a “Bearish Crossover” by piercing the significant support at the 200 EMA ($4,259.78), while the 50 EMA ($4,340.59) has also pierced the key support at the 100 EMA ($4,448), signaling extensive bearish pressure, which trigger heavy sell-off yesterday.
However, grim geopolitical concerns between the US and Iran could take another jolt as the Middle East has seen waves of attacks for a second day, as the US and Iran further threaten their agreement to reach a peace deal. President Donald Trump’s decision to launch more strikes was due to his anger over the Strait of Hormuz not being open yet and Iran hitting ships transiting the oil chokepoint while he was attending a NATO summit, a US official said.
Technically, I find that yesterday’s sell-off look quite inspiring for gold bears to remain in command and they will not hesitate to load fresh shorts, if gold futures try to retest yesterday’s high at $4,145, and the target will be at $4,030, as extensive bearish pressure due to elevated oil prices, and changing stance by President Trump on fragile peace deal will remain in focus this week.
Undoubtedly, Friday’s closing level of gold futures will play a significant role in providing further clues on the directional trend this year.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based solely on observations.
