Gold Futures recently closed above the key resistance level of $4,826.83 following the March report, which exceeded expectations and influenced market sentiment.
The headline figure ticked up 0.5% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year, compared to the consensus estimates of 1.1% and 4.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the 12-month increase in the headline figure was the largest since February 2023, driven mainly by an 8.5% month-on-month jump in the index for final demand energy prices.
While an impact from surging oil prices due to the Iran conflict was expected to show up in the report, investors were soothed by the headline miss.
Undoubtedly, this PPI report shows inflation isn’t gaining momentum – it’s being influenced by external shocks. Energy is driving the upside, and with geopolitical tensions surrounding key oil routes,
Those price moves can occur quickly and ripple through the system.
Generally, the US is viewed as a net energy exporter, which could help insulate the American economy from disruptions to oil flows from the Persian Gulf.
Expectations of interest rate hikes due to spiking oil prices and PPI data have weighed on gold, but risk sentiment has also led some traders away from U.S. dollar safe havens, boosting gold demand.
Undoubtedly, softness in the greenback, which has emerged as a safe haven of choice during the current Middle East conflict, can make gold more attractive to overseas buyers, possibly boosting demand.
On Tuesday, President Trump told the New York Post that more talks “could be happening over the next two days” in Pakistan.
Washington and Tehran have continued to engage with one another, and there has been some forward motion toward a permanent ceasefire deal, Reuters earlier reported.
Trump has also noted that the White House had been contacted by Iranian officials who would like to “make a deal,” adding that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.
Washington has reportedly demanded that Iran agree not to enrich, a key part of the process of building a nuclear weapon. Washington has reportedly demanded that Iran agree not to enrich uranium, a key part of the process of building a nuclear weapon, for 20 years.
I observe that though the U.S. is providing a rosy picture of the current scenario, according to the favorite dream of U.S. President Donald Trump, who is finding it difficult to justify this attack on Iran, which is causing a heavy financial load on American citizens.
Undoubtedly, President Trump himself wants to avoid war now, as further escalation of this war will result in a more severe impact on the American economy if he further stretches it now.
But the actual intention will come out during the upcoming direct face-to-face meeting this Thursday, if they meet again in Pakistan tomorrow, as the US military says it has “completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea” while its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues for a second day.
On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast as tensions between the United States and Iran have driven up energy and food costs globally.
The IMF said on Tuesday that it expected the global economy to grow by 3.1% this year, a slowdown from its earlier forecast of 3.3%, which it had released before the US and Israel began their war with Iran on February 28.
I find that if the upcoming meeting between the U.S. and Iranian officials does not come out with a solution for a permanent ceasefire, stagflation fear could continue to surge, and even if they agree on a permanent ceasefire, Israel will definitely disrupt the ceasefire by attacking Iran, if President Trump is not able to control his close ally, Netanyahu.
Upon analysing the current situation, I find that though the oil prices are below their March highs, at around $100 per barrel, they are still some 40% above where they were in late February.
I conclude that gold futures could remain under selling pressure, despite the surging hopes on a permanent ceasefire, as oil prices could remain strong this year, as the Strait of Hormuz has now turned into a more powerful instrument than a nuclear bomb for Iran, especially when the U.S. President remains indecisive on his stance.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
