As we wear green to honor the patron saint of Ireland, St Patrick, it might be time to offer a wee bit of Irish wisdom with and old Irish saying: “Always remember to forget the friends that proved untrue but never forget to remember those that have stuck by you”. This a little bit of seanfhocal came to me when I read that Germany, Australia and Japan say they won’t be joining U.S. efforts, to secure the strait of Hormuz while the U.K. and France say they are willing to discuss options.
In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported that German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius dismissed Trump’s call for help, asking rhetorically what Trump expects “a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to accomplish in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful U.S. Navy there cannot achieve on its own?” “This is not our war. We did not start it,” he said. “Sure look it, he should know! Germany started two world wars and, sure, they didn’t exactly turn out grand for them, did they?
Well, it’s not turning out to be all that grand for the Iranian leadership, or what’s left it. Israel is saying Ali Larijani, their security chief, was killed in the airstrikes. Yer man Larijani was right in the thick of it regarding Tehran’s big response to the US and Israel. Now, Israel’s minister is saying Trump will be informed of his death.
Yesterday crude pulled off one of those grand, theatrical reversals—like a cat leaping from a hot tin roof only to land on its feet with a smug little grin. Yet amid all that dramatic flipping and flopping, the crack spread stands tall as the sturdiest oak in the forest, refusing to bend. It remains the mightiest of the bunch, bolstered by whispers (and perhaps shouts) of threats to supplies that keep the refiners’ hearts a-flutter not to mention some leprechauns that are looking to fill their pots of gold.
Meanwhile, the price gap between our homegrown WTI and the far-off yawned wider still. That splendid divergence let the shale folks lock in jolly higher prices for their barrels, while a comforting parade of extra Venezuelan oil barrels sailed right up to our shores, easing worries and adding a touch of unexpected cheer to the supply picture. In this topsy-turvy tale of geopolitics and pumps, the heating oil crack holds the crown, the spread widens like a welcoming grin, and more Venezuelan crude arrives that hopefully will temper the surging diesel prices.
The market is currently walking a tightrope, trying to balance shut-in production against the very real chance that the current trickle of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz might soon turn into a flood.
As the old Irish saying goes, “a man’s mouth often breaks his nose,” and Iran knows it needs friends—but more than that, it needs to move its oil. The recent US strikes on Kharg Island serve as a stern reminder: when you’re skating on thin ice, you might as well dance. Iran’s economic future now rests entirely on the restraint of the US military, for there’s no use in having a full well if the path to the market is barred.
The Wall Street Journal says more oil heading out of the Gulf means less competition for barrels from the U.S., which should ease prices for everyone. Iran is allowing select non-Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which has helped to keep a lid on global energy prices. The Pakistani-flagged crude tanker Karachi and two Indian LPG tankers passed through the strait. Traffic through the strait remains well below prewar levels, with around 1,100 ships, including 250 petroleum tankers, stuck in the Gulf.
The United Aab Emirates’ daily oil output is down by more than half as the Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced state oil giant ADNOC to implement widespread production shut-ins, two sources told Reuters. The halt of commercial navigation through the critical maritime chokepoint, which is normally used to transport about a fifth of the world’s oil supply, has inflicted massive disruptions on global energy markets.
The Strait’s gone quiet as a graveyard—dramatic drop: From 50 tankers barreling’ through on Feb 28, down to a miserable 10 betwixt March 1 and 9. Like the whole sea’s holding’ its breath.
There are shadows and ghosts as half the few brave (or foolhardy) souls still creeping’ are shadow fleet rogues—sanction-dodging’ tricksters slinking’ by with lights out and flags flying’ false. Waitin’ in the wings: Near 400 tankers idling’ in the Gulf, stuck like flies in jam, praying’ for the path to clear.
“Ah sure look, we’ve a few worries on the production front at HFI Research. We’re after going 8.16 million barrels a day offline now. Iraq -3.3 million b/d Kuwait -1.3 million b/d UAE -1.56 million b/d Saudi -2 million b/d”.
Still the Saudis are tapping into their oil storage like it’s the last drop of Guinness on a thirsty night, drawing down those tanks to keep supplies flowing amid the chaos.
With the Strait of Hormuz largely blocked due to the escalation conflict in the Middle East, export routes are choked, forcing producers to reroute millions of barrels through alternative paths like Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline (Petroline).
That massive artery is now pushing toward its full capacity of around 7 million barrels per day, helping divert crude to Red Sea ports like Yanbu and maintaining some global deliveries despite the bottleneck.
Meanwhile, those East-West pipelines are running hot and heading to full throttle in the coming days, as Aramco ramps up to bypass the trouble and keep oil moving westward. But storage facilities in the Gulf are filling up fast—prompting production cuts in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere to avoid overflowing tanks.
And if you’re looking for a sign of Irish hope in the natural gas market, we expect to get our first natural gas injection of the season which means its spring is coming! NYMEX April 2026 natural gas futures (NGJ26) are hovering around $3.02–$3.04/MMBtu this morning, showing modest gains or flat trading on lighter holiday volume. Prices remain in a consolidation phase near recent lows after a volatile winter.
Fox Weather reports, we’re seeing a tale of two regions this St. Patrick’s Day and into spring. The Southwest is experiencing record heat and early spring-like temperatures, potentially boosting any early cooling demand in power generation. Meanwhile, the East and parts of the Midwest are returning to chillier conditions with wind chills in the single digits in places like Cleveland and possible flurries or snow in Chicago and Indiana. Looking broader into late March, Fox Weather highlights warmer temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., with an uptick in severe storm threats. The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook also favors above-average temps, which could accelerate the shift to shoulder season and reduce heating needs. This milder pattern is weighing on near-term demand expectations.
