The International Energy Agency (IEA) did not quite call for a lockdown, but in response to surging oil prices in Europe and Asia, they are recommending that you work from home and drive slowly. The IEA recommends around ten rapidly deployable measures, mainly targeting road transportation, which makes up approximately 45% of global oil consumption.
These include encouraging remote work whenever feasible, which helps reduce fuel usage for commuting, especially in roles that can be performed from home. Additionally, lowering highway speed limits by at least 10 km/h can boost fuel efficiency for cars, vans, and trucks, potentially saving several hundred thousand barrels of oil each day worldwide if broadly implemented.
Just stay in the right lane so I can pass you or is it the right plane in London, ok I am so confused. What is a km/h again?
On the domestic front, the Trump administration is pulling out all the stops to keep pump prices in check. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dropped a bombshell on Mornings with Maria on Fox Business, laying out a sharp, proactive U.S. tactic to tame surging oil prices amid the Iran conflict: temporarily lifting sanctions or “unsanctioning” if you prefer, on roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian crude already loaded and floating at sea/in transit.
He told Maria Bartiromo that, “This would flood the physical crude market with immediate supply—equivalent to 10–14 days of global demand relief—countering price spikes without touching futures or financial markets. Bessent framed it, ‘We will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians’ to keep prices down short-term while the campaign continues, diverting supply that would otherwise go mostly to China. That echoes the recent move on ~130 million barrels of Russian oil (already unsanctioned), creating massive combined physical relief (~260–270 million barrels total).
He also said explicitly no government intervention in commodity futures—Treasury has neither the authority nor intent but would focus on real-world physical supply boosts. Which probably means I won’t be getting a call from him to open an account anytime soon. You can though by calling Phil Flynn 888-264-5665!
It’s a shame because I think that using the futures market as a government hedge would, in many cases, be more efficient than moving physical barrels in some cases. He’s right, he doesn’t have the authority… yet! Call your congressman to change that.
Bessent also said that he is using targeted, temporary sanctions relief as a weapon to defend consumers, stabilize energy markets, and maintain pressure on adversaries—all without broad market disruption.
The Administration is also considering another SPR release to hammer down gas prices. He told Mornings with Maria that, “The US could unilaterally do another SPR release to keep the price down,” he said. We’ve already seen a massive 172-million-barrel draw authorized earlier this month (starting deliveries next week over 120 days), part of a broader IEA-coordinated effort. Bessent also floated possibly unsanctioning Iranian oil on the water (about 140 million barrels worth). The plan is to flood the market with supply to cool things off without escalating.
Oil did ease after no fresh reports of Iranian attacks after the energy infrastructure back-and-forth. Israel hit Iran’s South Pars gas field (the world’s largest, shared with Qatar) on March 18—major escalation—but Netanyahu made it clear: Israel acted alone, and they’ll heed Trump’s call not to repeat. Iran responded with announced, face-saving strikes (telegraphed in advance), signaling they want energy facilities off-limits.
Oil prices are staying in check as global allies hustle to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and the administration throws everything at the wall to keep your fill-up from breaking the bank.
President Vance got the big players in oil and energy around the table—think Energy Secretary Chris Wright, CEOs, lawmakers, and governors—thanks to the American Petroleum Institute, all hunting for ways to put a lid on those spiking gas prices. The recent U.S. military hits on Iran sent a shockwave through global energy markets, cranking up volatility.
We’re seeing some calming signals in the Strait of Hormuz. American allies—including Japan, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands—have pledged to help secure those vital shipping lanes. That’s music to the ears of traders who were bracing for a full-blown choke point meltdown. The question is what took them so long! This is an international waterway and those countries are more impacted by the Strait being closed then we are.
Ships are starting to transit again in limited fashion, easing the worst fears of prolonged disruptions. No wonder we’re seeing a pullback— is hovering around $94.30–$94.45 (down from recent highs in the mid-90s+ amid the chaos), while sits near $108–$109 (reflecting Europe’s and Asia’s heavier exposure to the risk premium). That’s a hefty $13.95–$14+ spread, with the world paying a premium for non-US barrels.
Japan’s making moves too—PM Sanae Takaichi, during her US visit, said they may start stockpiling US oil domestically to diversify away from Middle East dependence (over 90% of supplies). They already hold joint stockpiles with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait with priority access in emergencies. This aligns with expanding US energy production—smart hedging.
But don’t get too comfy. Saudi officials told the WSJ they see oil spiking to $180 if the energy shock persists past April—that’s the nightmare scenario if disruptions drag on. Trump says the Iran excursion “will be over soon.” I believe he is right and let’s pray for a quick end to this conflict and the end of this brutal regime.
The reopening of the Strait, commitments from allies, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and robust U.S. export capacity are currently limiting further price increases. Geopolitical risks might be easing, especially if energy infrastructure truces are held, but market fundamentals indicate supply constraints could worsen with changing conditions. Brent’s key support lies at $105–$106, with potential for a quick retest of recent highs if breached. WTI is supported at $93–$94, offering an entry point for upward moves. Effective risk management and flexibility are crucial.
The New York Post reported, “Evil in the streets Iran executes 19-year-old champion wrestler, two others in horrific public hangings Saleh Mohammadi, a rising star from Qom, was allegedly tortured to confess to the capital crime of waging war against God, with the teen executed without a fair trial, according to human rights groups. Another reason we can not let this regime continue.
Natural gas futures are pulling back today to around the $3.10–$3.14 range (down a modest 1-2% in light trading), giving back a bit of recent gains amid broader energy moves. But here’s the upbeat truth: this dip is a classic “buy the dip” setup in a fundamentally strong market that’s transitioning perfectly from winter heating to spring/summer power demand.
With healthy storage builds and an early heat wave flipping on air conditioners across the Southwest and West, the stage is set for a bullish rebound! Let’s break it down with yesterday’s EIA data and the latest Fox Weather outlook.
Yesterday’s EIA report showed a healthy shoulder-Sason build that keeps inventories in great shape. The Energy Information Administration dropped its weekly storage report yesterday it showed working gas in storage hit 1,883 Bcf – a solid +35 Bcf injection (slightly lighter than the ~39 Bcf expected). That’s the first net build of the season, right on cue as heating demand eases and spring gets spung or something like that , the supply is now 177 Bcf higher than last year at this time and a comfortable 47 Bcf above the five-year average which is impressive as this winter was the coldest in years.
The report was mildly bearish on the headline, but it had basically zero negative impact on prices because everyone knows we’re shifting gears. This is exactly what a resilient Nat gas market looks like heading into warmer months! But download the Fox Weather Ap as they are signaling warmer temps Ahead… and That Early Heat Wave Is Already Turning on the ACs! Fox Weather’s March outlook is calling for warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S., with above-normal readings and a chance for severe storms as spring ramps up. The Climate Prediction Center’s 8- to 14-day and longer-range views back this up – a ridge of warm air is dominating, previewing summer-like conditions way ahead of schedule.
And right now? We’re seeing a major early-season heat wave exploding across the Southwest and West Coast. Record highs in the 90s in Southern California, pushing toward 100°F in Arizona, and temps running 15–30°F above normal in spots. Homeowners and businesses are firing up those air conditioners weeks early – cooling centers opening, power grids feeling the strain, and electricity demand spiking. That’s straight-up bullish for natural gas power burn!
As we exit the heating season, this early AC surge is the perfect bridge to strong summer cooling loads, especially with forecasts leaning warmer overall. No more “mild winter” hangover – demand is turning the corner in a big way. Natural gas prices may be taking a quick breather, but with above-average storage, a seamless seasonal shift, and Fox Weather delivering early heat that’s already cranking up air conditioners and power demand, the fundamentals are rock-solid and getting better.
