Upon evaluating the movements of both and futures on the daily chart amid surging anxiety among traders, it is evident that the outcome of the meeting between U.S. and Iranian Diplomats could soon elevate the directional move, once the markets receive cues.
Undoubtedly, surging volatility at the moment in gold and silver futures look ready to react over the outcome of this meeting as the gold futures, after opening the day at $4,722.30, tested the day’s low at $4,671.74 are trading at the day’s high, currently at $4,907, just below the immediate resistance at $4,938.55, indicating that the U.S. and Iran talks to begin amid fears of direct conflict.
I observe that though everything still looks indecisive as the U.S. is demanding Iran freeze its nuclear programme and discard its stockpile of uranium, and had said the talks should also involve Iran’s ballistic missiles, the country’s support for regional armed groups, and its treatment of its citizens.
Iran, however, has said the discussion will be limited to its nuclear programme, and it is unclear if these differences have been resolved.
In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Iran if it does not reach a deal. The US has sent thousands of troops and what Trump has described as an “armada” to the region, including an aircraft carrier along with other warships as well as fighter jets.
Iran has vowed to respond to an attack with force, threatening to strike American military assets in the Middle East and Israel.
Undoubtedly, this is the first meeting involving US and Iranian officials since the war between Israel and Iran last June, when the US bombed Iran’s three main nuclear facilities, while Iran says its uranium enrichment activity stopped after the attack.
I observed that the metal markets marked an extended rout since last week, with initial losses triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Marsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman after Jerome Powell.
Undoubtedly, Warsh was viewed as a less dovish pick, spurring a rebound in the dollar that pressured metal markets. The greenback was now headed for its best week since early-October, with soft labor market data doing little to deter the dollar’s advance.
I feel that if this meeting provides some clues on cooling tension between Iran and the U.S. could trigger a selling spree in both gold and silver futures, though both the futures have experienced some reversal from the day’s low.
Undoubtedly, it is worthless to explain the technical bounce or exhaustion before the final outcome of the U.S.-Iran meet, but I prefer to indicate my observations to predict the impact of this outcome, in both ways, whether it will calm down the grim situation or if it extends tension.
On having a look at the current position of the spot gold-silver ratio, I find that in today’s session it has tested a high at 72.77 and the day’s low at 65.10, currently at 66.39, indicating that the gold and silver futures are likely to test the levels, seen between December 1 to 16, 2025 when the gold futures were near $4,207 and $4,340 while the silver futures were at $57 to $65.
I find that the gold futures are currently holding above the significant support at the 50 EMA ($4,580), and below the immediate resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,885), after holding above the immediate support at the 20 EMA ($4,824).
On the other hand, silver futures are trading above the significant support at the 100 EMA ($62.692) but still below the immediate resistance at the 50 EMA ($74.252).
In conclusion, I observe that any positive outcome of this meeting could trigger a selling spree in both the precious metals, while any disagreement between the two countries could trigger some buying, but that could remain under selling threats as further comments from the US President after the outcome of this meeting will matter a lot.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
