After weeks of coiling price action, ’s breakout puts the upside back in play.
- Breakout from February’s triangle structure.
- $92 zone emerges as a critical resistance test.
- Momentum improving as downside pressure fades.
Whether pre-emptive ahead of the reopening of mainland Chinese markets, assisted by renewed trade tensions following the SCOTUS reciprocal tariff ruling last Friday, or a combination of both, silver has staged a violent breakout from the symmetrical triangle it spent much of February coiling within. Convention suggests we may now see a retest of the upper boundary near $92.20. To me, that level looms as highly important.
Source: TradingView
We’ve already seen the sequence of lower highs broken, but if silver can push through $92.20 along with $92.88, another notable level coinciding with the 50% retracement of the January-February flush, it may further encourage sidelined bulls to seek a retest of the record high of $121.66 set on January 29.
Should price clear and hold above $92.88, longs could be considered with a stop beneath $92.20 for protection, initially targeting $95.90, $102, or $112.50, each of which acted as minor support or resistance earlier this year on shorter timeframes. $109.34 also stands out beneath the record high, aligning with the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-February high-low move.
For those not inclined to wait for further confirmation of the breakout, dips towards $86 may offer a potential entry point, marking both the 38.2% retracement of the January-February move and the February 11 daily high. The 50-day moving average presents another possible level of interest. A deeper slide beyond the 50DMA would begin to question the signal from the triangle break, likely shifting directional bias back towards neutral.
The message from RSI (14) and MACD is one of shifting price momentum. RSI is now trending higher above 50, suggesting topside strength is beginning to build. MACD has yet to confirm, although it sits on the cusp of crossing the signal line from below and is already turning higher towards positive territory. It’s more of a neutral signal than anything, but at the very least, it warns bears that downside pressure is rapidly diminishing.
