After reviewing the movements of futures across different time-frame charts, I observed that strong bearish pressure at the current levels appears evident, as bears seem ready to initiate a selling spree once they receive clearer signals about Trump’s next move on Iran, ahead of the meeting between U.S. and Iranian diplomats this Thursday in Washington.
Similar to the planning of the operation to capture Nicolas Maduro, Trump has empowered a small brain trust to think through the challenges in Iran and present him with a range of options that he can exercise at a time of his choosing, maximizing leverage while minimizing risk.
Gen. Dan Caine, who was fully involved in the Venezuela operation, has been advising President Trump and senior officials that a military campaign against Iran could carry significant risks, particularly the possibility of becoming entangled in a prolonged conflict and incurring American casualties.
Meanwhile, Trump posted on Truth Social that Caine would prefer to avoid war but believes it would “be something easily won” if necessary. “He has not spoken of not doing Iran, or even the fake limited strikes that I have been reading about; he only knows one thing: how to WIN, and if he is told to do so, he will be leading the pack,” Trump wrote.
Undoubtedly, there is an ongoing debate at the highest levels of the Trump administration about how to handle the Iran standoff and what the consequences of each option would be. At present, several voices within Trump’s circle are urging caution, although Trump himself appears to be leaning toward a strike.
The question now arises as to what success would look like in the context of military action, and how risky it would be to pursue it.
Reaching a nuclear deal, on the other hand, would likely require Trump to reconsider some of his previously firm positions. As he weighs possible military action, his envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have urged him to pause and give diplomacy a chance.
I observed that Gen. Caine’s position could be particularly influential, as he is Trump’s top military adviser and is highly respected by the president.
Gold and futures are currently showing extended indecision ahead of the third round of indirect talks between U.S. and Iranian diplomats, scheduled for Thursday in Geneva. However, the U.S. has yet to confirm its participation. Oman stated on Sunday that the talks are proceeding “with a positive push to go the extra mile towards finalising the deal.”
I find that both precious metals are showing reluctance to move further, as they have shed their geopolitical premium at these price levels, as discussed in my previous analysis, Gold and Silver Shed Geopolitical Premium — Is a Comeback Ahead? on Feb. 19, 2026.
Today, I present the movements of gold and silver futures within the same chart pattern, marked with pivotal points and “Expected Zones.”
Moreover, it is equally important to analyse their moves on 1-hour charts to map their short-term directional bias
GOLD
Daily Chart
1-Hr. Chart
SILVER
Daily Chart
1-Hr. Chart
XAU/XAG (Spot Gold-Silver Ratio)
Daily Chart
1-Hr. Chart
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
