Geopolitical developments in Iran and elsewhere are likely to dwarf the generally modest FX seasonal trends in March.
March Forex Seasonality Key Points
- Geopolitical developments in Iran and elsewhere are likely to dwarf the generally modest FX seasonal trends in March.
- USD/JPY volatility is more likely to be driven by day-to-day headlines than longer-term trends or seasonal tendencies, with traders weighing rising oil prices against the potential for safe haven flows.
- A broader risk-off move could lead to a pullback in the Aussie, though bulls will initially look to buy dips toward previous-resistance-turned-support in the mid-0.6900s given the established uptrend.
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.
As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Euro Forex Seasonality – EUR/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Historically, March has been a mixed month for , with the world’s most widely-traded currency pair sporting an average return of +0.0% over the last 50+ years. In February, EUR/USD saw among its smallest trading monthly ranges (190 pips) in years, and if the early March price action is any indication, volatility could return despite the seasonal tendency. In what will be a clear trend this month, geopolitical developments in Iran and elsewhere are likely to dwarf the generally modest seasonal trends.
British Pound Forex Seasonality – GBP/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Looking at the above chart, has, on average, traded higher in March, with average returns of around +0.2% since 1971. Like the euro, the British pound saw a quieter month in February. For March, traders will be watching the year-to-date low 1.3340, with a potential break below that key support level opening the door for more downside, despite the modestly bullish seasonal trend.
Japanese Yen Forex Seasonality – USD/JPY Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
March has historically been a slightly bullish month for , with the pair rising by an average of +0.1% since the Bretton Woods agreement. USD/JPY has been defying its usual seasonality so far this year, falling in January before edging back higher in February as traders digested the political situation in Japan and its implications for BOJ policy. Now, with traders weighing rising oil prices against the potential for safe haven flows, USD/JPY volatility is more likely to be driven by day-to-day headlines than longer-term trends or seasonal tendencies.
Australian Dollar Forex Seasonality – AUD/USD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Turning our attention Down Under, has historically traded moderately lower in March, with an average drop of -0.1% going back to 1971. Last month, the Aussie extended its January gains to test 3.5-year highs near 0.7150 before pulling back to the mid-0.7000s as of writing. In this case, there’s a clear medium-term trend in favor of the antipodean currency, and traders have taken notice, with the latest COT positioning data showing multi-year highs in bullish speculative positioning. A broader risk-off move could lead to a pullback in the Aussie, though bulls will initially look to buy dips toward previous-resistance-turned-support in the mid-0.6900s given the established uptrend.
Canadian Dollar Forex Seasonality – USD/CAD Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Last but not least, March has been a modestly negative month for , with an average historical return of -0.1%. As we go to press, USD/CAD has started the month on a bullish foot, nearing the February high in the lower-1.3700s on safe haven demand for the . The early price action underscores the idea that traders are more focused on geopolitical developments than longer-term trends or seasonality.
As always, we want to close this article by reminding readers that seasonal tendencies are not gospel – even if they’ve tracked relatively closely so far this year – so it’s important to complement this analysis with an examination of the current fundamental and technical backdrops for the major currency pairs.
