Fed Decision, Powell Briefing, Micron and FedEx Earnings to Test Markets This Week | Investing.com

Key highlights:

• Japanese stocks plunged (Nikkei down as much as 6.9%, Topix up to 5.7%) as rising oil, Middle East tensions and weak US jobs data spooked investors.
• Asia shares cautious as oil remained volatile amid doubts over Strait of Hormuz shipping plans; a slate of central bank meetings warns on inflation, Wall Street eyes Nvidia’s AI conference, and the dollar eased from highs but stays near key chart levels.
• Oil fluctuated — Brent around $105 and WTI near $99 after two-week gains of over 40% following a U.S. strike on Iran’s Kharg Island (the main export hub). Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Israel and Arab states.
• The IEA’s note that reserves will soon hit markets, and President Trump’s rejection of ceasefire talks while urging nations to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Bond investors are weighing whether Iran-war-driven inflation will soon shift to growth worries from soaring oil. Strategists warn markets may underplay that risk and favor bullish bond trades, including long positions in short-term rates to bet on more Fed easing than priced in.

edged higher Sunday night, as and also gained. US briefly climbed above $100 a barrel before retreating. Chinese economic data exceeded expectations.

Stocks fell for a third straight week as the Iran war entered its second full week, with all three major indexes down over 1% again and hovering near 2026 lows amid volatile, surging crude oil prices.

US Economic data and Earnings Calendar:

Investors will seek clarity next week on how the Middle East conflict is reshaping expectations for rate cuts this year, as Fed policymakers convene for the first time since U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran about two weeks ago. A shock that sent oil prices sharply higher and reverberated across markets.

Powell’s post-decision remarks will be watched closely — they may reveal FOMC splits between officials favoring larger cuts amid labor weakness and those worried about persistent inflation. The press conference could be his second-to-last before his term ends in May.

Also Wednesday, February’s will show wholesale inflation trends after January’s bigger-than-expected rise. and reports due this week will be watched for signs of housing-market improvement.

Economic calendar:

Monday, March 16

• & capacity utilization (Feb); Empire State manufacturing survey (Mar); Homebuilder confidence (Mar)

Tuesday, March 17

• Pending home sales (Feb)

Wednesday, March 18

• ; Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference
• (Feb), Factory orders (Jan)

Thursday, March 19

• New home sales (Jan); (week of Mar 14); survey (Mar); Wholesale inventories (Jan)

Earnings calendar:

Monday, March 16

• Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:), Science Applications International (SAIC)

Tuesday, March 17

• Tencent Music (TME), Lululemon (NASDAQ:), Oklo (NYSE:), DocuSign (NASDAQ:)

Wednesday, March 18

• Micron (NASDAQ:), Jabil (JBL), General Mills (NYSE:), Macy’s (M)

Thursday, March 19

• Alibaba (NYSE:), Accenture (NYSE:), FedEx (NYSE:)

Friday, March 20

• Xpeng (NYSE:)

Micron (MU) reports earnings after its stock more than quadrupled over the past year on the AI boom; the memory-chip maker logged a 60% year‑over‑year sales rise last quarter and beat profit estimates.

FedEx (FDX) reports quarterly results Thursday; its stock is up nearly 25% this year and investors will watch for clues on global shipping and the broader economy.

Dollar Tree’s (DLTR) earnings will shed light on U.S. consumer strength after its last report showed shoppers were “stretched.” Results from General Mills (GIS), Lululemon (LULU) and Macy’s (M) will further flesh out the consumer picture.

Oklo is set to report earnings this week, which struck a deal earlier this year to supply power to Meta’s data centers.

Alibaba, China’s largest tech firm, will report earnings as it ramps up AI spending; Chinese EV maker Xpeng, a Tesla rival abroad, is also set to report.

Alibaba plans to unveil an enterprise-focused agentic AI service, built on its Qwen model by the DingTalk team, possibly as soon as this week, with plans to integrate it gradually with Taobao and Alipay and capitalize on demand for task-performing AI assistants.

Technical Analysis:

DJIA Index

• The has broken the long-term uptrend from Aug. 25, 2025, and the Dow is trading inside a downward channel.
• A decisive break below 46,430 raises the risk of a decline toward 45,770.
• A corrective bounce to about 47,000 is probable so long as support at 46,430 holds.

DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart

Nasdaq 100 Index

• The is trading in a rectangle between 24,300 and 25,370, with 24,860 as the midpoint pivot.
• A Monday 9:30 a.m. ET opens below 24,300 would signal a downside breakout.
• Downside targets on a breakout are 23,800 and 23,250.
• Otherwise expect a range between 24,300 and 24,860.

NDX Daily Candlestick Chart

SPX Index

• broke down from a rectangle consolidation, initiating a bearish move.
• Primary support targets: 6,550–6,520.
• Strong resistance at 6,670–6,680 must hold to confirm the downside view.
• A brief corrective bounce to 6,660–6,680 is possible.

SPX Daily Candlestick Chart

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for Mar 16 – 20, 2026 suggests “Historically, US indices start this week mix, rally for three straight days, then turn mix-to-bearish.”.
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training.

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