After evaluating the movement of the on daily charts along with gold’s CFTC speculative net positions since Sept.19, 2025, to Sept.19 to Jan.23, 2026, I find that the gold’s net weekly speculative positions were between 266K in this period, while the data was missing in October 2025, but was abruptly found missing in Oct. 2025.
Despite this data gap, gold futures tested a record peak at $4398.75 on Oct. 20, 2025, after a rally that started on Oct.2, and continued up to Oct.20, 2025 – a rise of approximately 14.35% in 20 days, a blind bullish bounce only amid surging bullish sentiments even in the absence of economic data.
Undoubtedly, this blind bullish move was sold by desperate bears, recognizing the absence of supportive data, and pushed gold futures to test the lows at $3,894.48 within the next eight days, tested a peak at $4,398.48 on Oct. 20, 2025, and on the next day this rally found a steep fall of approximately 6.87%, followed by a steep fall of approximately 11.49% with in next seven days up to Oct. 20, 2025.
Once again, COT data started from Nov. 19, 2025, when the gold’s CFTC speculative net positions were 252.9K, followed by 232K, 203.9K in the preceding weeks in November, while 176.6K and 204.7K during the first two weeks of Dec.2025, and followed by a surge from 204.7K to 240.7K in rest of the three weeks of Dec. 2025, resulted in continuation of an uptrend in gold futures till the tested the next peak at $4,557.23 on Dec. 29, 2025 which was sold by the desperate bears, resulted in a single-day fall of approximately 5.27% that pushed the futures to test a low at $4,308.52.
I find that despite some similarities in the last three rallies, generated since April 2025, the angle of elevation, duration of uptrend, and the central bank’s disparate buying and geopolitical concerns were more or less the same.
But, I find that the gold futures have attained a record level this year on January 26, 2026 at $5,145.39, after a surge of approximately 19% in 25 days-long voyage with an angle of elevation is of 64-degree, seems quite similar to rally, experienced by the gold futures in April, 2025 when the gold futures surge almost 17.83% in 13 days, and the angle of elevation was of 73-degree, entered the selling zone on April 22, 2025.
The January 2026, rally has also entered the selling zone, confirming the advent of a selling spree shortly, as the gold futures, after testing a high at $5,145.39, are trading at $5,126.44.
Undoubtedly, a breakdown below the immediate support at $5,022 will confirm the advent of a steep slide from this height, and the next breakdown below the significant support at the 9 EMA ($4,854) will accelerate the slide to test the next support at the 20 EMA ($4,679.42) this week.
The gold futures started this year with a gap-up opening on Jan. 2, with a surprise from U.S. President Donald Trump by capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, resulting in the advent of a rally in gold futures from the tested lows at $4,322.93 on Jan. 2, 2026, and have surged up to 19% within 25 days, and the real drivers are almost absent this year, and the rally has pushed the gold futures once again inside the selling zone, could experience a heavy sell off any time as risk of exhaustions are more than the drivers.
