After evaluating the movements of the in a daily chart since Jan.16, 2026 amid changing whispers on weakening U.S. dollar could be the reason behind this exacerbated surge of 16.56% within 11 days with 75-degree angle of elevation seems to be an end of a rally as the gold futures experienced in April 2025 when the U.S. President Donald Trump tried to influence global trade equations by using his economic emergency powers with seeking any approval from the U.S. Congress.
On Wednesday, a gold future, after testing the day’s high at $5,303.89, look ready to be a little more could test the next resistance, indicating an advent of selling spree, if not cross the immediate resistance at $5,351.30 within next four hours as this rally is based only on grappling U.S. dollar near four-year lows due to Trump’s remark to a casual question about the dollar.
Undoubtedly, this elevated move by the gold futures, just before the meeting of the Federal Reserve under the Chair Jerome Powell within next few hours from now while the Fed is expected to hold the rate cut this time as the consumer confidence, meanwhile, slumped to its lowest levels in more than 11 years in January amid amounting anxiety over a sluggish labor market and high prices.
On the other hand, Trump has said that he will soon announce his pick to serve as head of the U.S. central bank, and predicted interest rates would decline once the new chair takes over the Fed.
Moreover, while Trump says he’s not concerned about the currency’s decline, it seems to be a strategy to run the economy hot into the mid-term elections in November this year, and get ahead of the Fed, which appears reluctant to cut by letting the USD slide.
I find that such a scenario seems to be an attempt to influence the economic equations by political whim, which could hardly care about the surging inflation, which could lead to a steep slide in gold futures even before the Fed meeting.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a daily chart, gold futures are expected to hold a pivotal point at $5,297.30, could try to test the significant level at $5,351.30, where an attempt could trigger a selling spree, and that could push the futures to test the immediate support at $5,229.37.
Undoubtedly, if this support is broken before the Fed meeting later in the day, the decline could be steeper, as gold bears could maintain a 75-degree fall this time.
In conclusion, I find that a short position can be created at $5,348 with a stop loss at $5.527.13 for a target at $4,545.75 up to Feb.11, 2026.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
