Upon evaluating the comparative moves by the futures and the spot gold futures after a jolting pullback of approximately 8.95% from the record peak at $5,627.72, there was a strong reversal of about 6.75% after testing the day’s low at $5,133. This indicates an advent of a selling spree amid surging whispers on quenching the grim situation between the U.S. and Iran. These tensions pushed precious metals to test record highs within 29 days.
The gold and silver futures behaved exactly as I explained in my last articles on Thursday. The steep move by gold futures since the beginning of this year finally overstretched from 64% to 65% on Thursday. This resulted in a sharp pull-down from the tested peak, according to technical formations. At the same time, there were international whispers to raise efforts to avoid war between the U.S. and Iran on Jan. 27, 2026.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed holding a trilateral summit involving Turkey, the United States, and Iran, according to Turkey’s pro-government newspaper Hurriyet.
This proposal was reportedly raised during a phone call between Erdogan and US President Donald Trump on January 27, with Trump said to be receptive to the idea. The suggested format could involve a virtual meeting. Separately, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is also expected to visit Turkey for talks with Foreign Minister Hakan.
On the other hand, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a phone call that Tehran always welcomes any process, within the framework of international law, that prevents war, Iranian media reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, Russia and China are also trying to intervene between the US and Iran, as both nations never want the US to set up its military base in Iran.
I find that despite testing the record highs, reversal after testing the day’s record levels on Thursday, both precious metals have started to fall, and could continue as precious metals could continue to experience a selling spree on Friday, as the tested record highs have finally popped the bubble on Thursday.
Though the US-Iran tension seems to be cooling down a little, the U.S. President has extended tension over Cuba.
On Thursday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at imposing trade tariffs on any country that sells oil to Cuba.
Trump ordered his Commerce Secretary and the Secretary of State to determine whether a foreign country was selling oil to Cuba, and to impose tariffs on the country accordingly.
Trump, in the order, also warned against retaliation over any potential tariffs.
The order comes just weeks after Trump launched an incursion into Venezuela and claimed to have taken over the country’s oil industry. He had then warned that Cuba was next, accusing the country of harbouring anti-American interests.
Trump had also proposed a naval blockade around Cuba to cut off its oil imports.
The U.S. has kept an embargo on Cuba since the 1960s, largely blocking the country from global trade.
Undoubtedly, such moves by President Trump could continue to extend indecisiveness, which may keep the gold and silver prices from remaining in a zig-zag, but the overall trend could remain bearish as the gold futures once again started to slide today.
Technical Levels to Watch
Gold futures, after opening at $5,467.64, after testing the day’s high at $5,480, continued to slide on Friday, and are going to test the first support at $5,133.39 where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next supports at the 9 EMA ($5,110) and the 20 EMA ($4,880) while some reversal seems to be there right now.
Undoubtedly, if the gold futures couldn’t hold the 20 EMA support on Friday, the next target could be the 50 EMA ($4,550), which will confirm the continuity of this slide in 75-degree angle, and could push the futures to test the lows at $4,319.74 up to Feb.16, 2026.
Inversely, any extension of US-Iranian tension could generate a strong reversal, but the cooling down of geopolitical tensions could continue this selling spree as the extreme levels tested by the precious metals have led to currency deflation, which seems to be an important worry for all the central banks.
Silver futures, after opening at $117.495 on Friday, tested the day’s high at $118.340, currently trading at $111.383, after testing the day’s low at $107.848.
Undoubtedly, reversal is there, but the selling is likely to continue, and if the silver futures find a breakdown below the immediate support at $106.742, the next targets could be at the 9 EMA ($105.432) and 20 EMA ($93.148).
Inversely, any reversal above the immediate resistance at $112.146 could revive the hopes for continuity of some upside.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
