Upon evaluating gold and across multiple time frames on Thursday, I observed that the anticipated decline aligned precisely with my previous .
This fall in gold futures of over 3%, while silver futures slipped by around 11%, confirms the influence of surging hopes for easing U.S.-Iran tension. The ongoing delay in the deal between them suggests exhaustion in gold and silver futures may continue until February 19. That is when the ‘Trump Board For Peace’ will meet at the Institute for Peace in Washington, D.C.
Governments worldwide have reacted cautiously to Trump’s invitation to join the initiative. Some of Washington’s Middle Eastern allies have joined. Many traditional Western allies have not joined yet. Permanent membership on the board costs $1 billion.
A U.N. Security Council Resolution, adopted in mid-November, authorized the board and countries working with it to establish an international stabilization force in Gaza, where a fragile ceasefire began in October under a Trump plan on which Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas signed off.
Under Trump’s Gaza plan, revealed late last year, the board was meant to supervise Gaza’s temporary governance. Trump thereafter said it would be expanded to tackle global conflicts.
I observed that since the Board for Peace, constituting a good number of Gulf countries that support Iran’s stand on protecting its sovereignty, could be the reason behind this delay in the deal between the U.S. and Iran.
I anticipate that U.S. President Donald Trump, who says he will chair and aim to resolve global conflicts, could prefer to delay the expected military action on Iran by postponing further talks for some more time.
US President Donald Trump will announce a multi-billion-dollar reconstruction plan for Gaza and detail plans for an UN-authorised stabilisation force for the Palestinian enclave at the first formal meeting of his Board of Peace next week, two senior US officials said on Feb 12.
Delegations from at least 20 countries, including many heads of state, are expected to attend the meeting in Washington DC, which Mr. Trump will chair on Feb 19, the officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Undoubtedly, if this initiative by US president Trump remain successful, geopolitical concerns are likely to ease for some time, potentially be a game changer for decline in safe-haven demand of gold while the silver will be repriced to meet its industrial demand, could be a reason for a steeper fall in silver futures than the gold which has already lost its safe-haven potential due to elevated prices, being a non-yield asset, will could also experience a steep slide from here.
Technical Levels to Watch
Gold
In a monthly chart, gold futures, after testing the month’s high at $5,140.50, and the month’s low at $4,423.20, are trading at $4,959, just below the immediate resistance at $5,006 and just above the immediate support at $4,659.47, indicating indecisiveness to continue amid persisting indecisiveness on U.S.-Iran which is likely to settle down before Feb. 19, 2026.
Undoubtedly, this month’s closing level will define the next directional move for the rest of the year.
In a weekly chart, after an indecisive move last week, gold futures have experienced the formation of a bearish hammer, which is likely to complete this week, as despite attempting to breach the immediate resistance at $5,123.96, gold futures look ready to test the next support at the 9 EMA ($4,698) next week.
In a daily chart, gold futures are showing extensive bearish pressure as yesterday, after finding a breakdown below the 9 EMA ($4,981) found some support at the 20 EMA ($4,914), trading below the 9 EMA in today’s session, trying to hold the immediate support at the 20 EMA where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the 50 EMA ($4,669).
Silver
In a monthly chart, silver futures have formed an indecisive bearish candle this month, after experiencing the formation of a long bearish hammer last week, when the futures tested a record peak at $121.812, while this month, after testing the month’s high at $92, and a low at $63.900, indicating bearish continuation due to extensive selling pressure.
In a weekly chart, silver futures are showing extensive bearish pressure as the completion of a bearish formation, “Three Black Crows,” looks evident enough to keep the futures under selling pressure despite some in-between bounces. Silver futures are trying to hold the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($76.812), where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the 20 EMA ($67.182).
In a daily chart, silver futures are trying to hold the immediate support at the 50 EMA ($75.648) after the formation of a ‘Bearish Crossover’, which confirms the continuity of selling pressure, and could push the futures below this immediate support, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next support at the 100 EMA ($64.488).
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.
