Upon evaluating futures across various timeframes, I observe that both gold and futures have traded within a narrow range since Tuesday morning at 21:00 IST. This pattern reflects heightened market indecision ahead of President Donald Trump’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may attempt to influence Trump’s stance on Iran. Concurrently, President Trump is expected to address the Iran issue through diplomatic discussions.
On Tuesday, Israel’s Prime Minister said that the top priority in his talks with US President Donald Trump would be ongoing negotiations with Iran, as he would insist on a tougher US approach to Tehran’s ballistic missile programme.
So far, Iran has rejected expanding the scope of its talks with the US beyond the issue of its nuclear programme. However, Washington also wants Tehran’s ballistic missile programme and its support for regional militant groups on the table.
The two leaders are to meet in Washington on Wednesday, their sixth such encounter in the United States since Trump returned to office a year ago.
They also met in Jerusalem in October when Trump announced a ceasefire in Gaza.
Wednesday’s meeting comes days after arch-foes Iran and the United States held talks in Oman, after which Trump said another round of negotiations would follow.
Netanyahu and Trump will also meet amid growing international outrage over Israeli measures to tighten control of the occupied West Bank by allowing settlers to buy land directly from its Palestinian owners.
However, it remains unclear whether the issue will be raised in their talks, despite Trump’s past opposition to any annexation of the West Bank.
“On this trip, we will discuss a range of issues: Gaza, the region, but of course first and foremost the negotiations with Iran,” Netanyahu said, in a video statement before his departure.
However, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson warned Tuesday that Netanyahu’s visit would have a “destructive” influence on diplomacy that is “detrimental to the region”.
Israel’s concerns came to a head during an unprecedented war between the two longtime adversaries in June last year.
I assess that it will be challenging for Netanyahu to persuade President Trump to pursue direct military action against Iran, despite the presence of US forces near Iran. President Trump appears to favor a diplomatic resolution to the issue.
In Jerusalem, there is fear that Trump could reach what officials describe as a “hollow” agreement with Iran, one that would address only the nuclear issue without meaningful oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israeli officials worry such a deal would effectively constrain Israel’s ability to act against Iran while an agreement between Washington and Tehran is in place.
In such a scenario, Netanyahu would also find it difficult to publicly criticize Trump, who is widely regarded in Israel as the most pro-Israel US president to date. During Trump’s previous term, Israel refrained from military action against Iran while the nuclear agreement was in effect, despite repeated threats and assertions that it was not bound by the deal.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Ministry commented Tuesday on the negotiations that began over the weekend in Oman, which is mediating between the sides. Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the talks were intended primarily to “test Washington’s level of seriousness” and that, despite deep mistrust, it appears possible to continue the contacts.
“It is not possible to predict the duration of the negotiations or their end date,” Baghaei said. “We are negotiating, intending to reach a swift conclusion, and do not want to prolong the process.”
“We are acting energetically and want to reach an agreement with the United States that guarantees the lifting of sanctions,” he added. “One of the problems facing the United States in the region is its submission to Israel’s demands.”
I find that the currently prevailing scenario indicates that the gold and silver futures are waiting for the outcome of this meeting to get a cue on how it would impact the deal between the US and Iran.
Technically, bearish pressure seems to be extending today at 21:42 IST when the gold futures are at $5,045 (-0.67%).
Silver futures are trading at $80.360 (-2%), indicating surging bearish pressure after the formation of a bearish crossover.
On the other hand, the spot gold and silver ratio (XAU/XAG) has experienced a strong reversal from the day’s low, and is currently trading at 62.54 with 3% gains, indicating the surging bearish pressure on gold and silver futures.
I anticipate that the gold and silver futures could experience a sharp sell-off, even before the start of this meeting between the US and Iran, as this could hamper the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, while it will not be so easy for the president Nitanyahu to compel Trump to change his stance on Iran.
